Rakes Report #250: If you want to be happy in a million ways, for the holidays you can't beat home sweet home

Christmas Giving rolls on as we turn our attention to the Indiana Hoosiers.

~optional musical accompaniment~

Good morning, everyone. My sincerest appreciation to everybody who’s donated to/spread the word about Christmas Giving so far and to Jess, Jamie and Nicole for taking the time to come on the pod. Also thank you again to Bridget who has a new special design available at TeePublic commemorating this season. A reminder all TeePublic proceeds from this month also go to the Center for the Homeless in South Bend.

A lot of lovely and funny tributes on the GoFundMe and a reminder that the system is even more confusing this year so check your emailed receipt for the link if you want to add a comment after you donate.

Speed round/potpourri edition below.

* Considering the gap between the sixth and seventh seed as far as potential quarterfinal opponent it is unfortunate where Notre Dame was slotted but it lines up with the theory we had all season the committee wasn’t going to punish conference championship game losers, particularly if they were competitive games. If you laid out the resumes of the Irish, Longhorns and Nittany Lions I think a strong case could be made for Notre Dame — particularly after the Army win became “35-point victory over an 11-1 AAC champ” — but I suppose there is some cosmic justice in the Northern Illinois game having a tangible cost.

While I do not trust the committee and will never expect them to maintain anything resembling year-to-year standards, at least the internal logic was consistent this time around as SMU received the same light touch after a close loss as the Big Ten and SEC runners-up. As has been the case with most years, 1) The committee did a fine job 2) The committee did not have many difficult choices to consider, thus making “fine job” a simple bar to clear. This would have been a lot less fun for them if Alabama splits against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, Ole Miss splits with Florida and Kentucky, and South Carolina holds on against LSU.

While it wasn’t the best possible seed, the Irish did receive a gift being placed on the other side of the bracket from Oregon, Texas and Ohio State, who are currently the top three teams in F+ and three of the four betting favorites to take home the crown. To further this point, Jamie tested the entire field on whether they’re hitting the same benchmarks as previous champions. (These will likely evolve in a 12-team field, but useful exercise.) The four teams who hit the most? Oregon, Texas, Ohio State…and Notre Dame. Should the Irish advance, it’s notable Georgia was failing to clear a number of the usual marks even before Carson Beck’s injury.

* Large amount of smoke that the playoff is going to expand to 14 teams in a few years, meaning only two byes that are presumably reserved for the Big Ten and SEC champions. (Listen to Wednesday’s podcast with Nicole Auerbach for a deep dive on likely bracket changes if you’re interested.) Seems like a great deal for Notre Dame, as even if the two biggest leagues manage to leverage the situation to result in multiple automatic qualifiers (completely unnecessary as they’ll always get many teams) we will maintain the current situation of “The Irish are in at 12-0/11-1 and would have a shot at 10-2 depending on resume/bubble environment.” The state of independence remains strong, especially if the SEC decides to stick with eight-game conference schedules.

* Mixed bag on the injury front from Marcus Freeman on Sunday. He expects Jeremiyah Love and Howard Cross to be back for the Hoosiers, but Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa is likely to miss the opening round match up. If Cross is close to 100% that will be a major boon to the pass rush, but losing KVA coming off the edge after already being down two other elite players in that area is tough. Love at full-go obviously gives the Notre Dame offense a legit shot at scoring on anyone. In fact…

* …let’s take a look at that in visual form. These are all from before the conference title games, so adjust for Ashton Jeanty, Dillon Gabriel and other high-level performers as necessary. First, here’s one showing Notre Dame leading the nation in tailback yards per attempt between the tackles and trailing only Utah State (obviously) on outside runs. Sometimes when you’re alone on a chart it’s a bad sign but this is very much a good one.

Here is a list showing Love and Jadarian Price both being among the best running backs in the nation in opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added) per rush. The points added are meant to be literal, meaning every dozen times you let Love run the ball he will get you a touchdown. (Travis Hunter would be a great and deserving Heisman winner, but Jeanty maintaining his effectiveness on such a heavy workload, damn. And this chart was from before he put up 209 yards in the Mountain West title game!)

We talked about this a little last week but Notre Dame’s offense has reached rather lofty statistical air, especially considering how it looked in September. Mike Denbrock’s unit is 7th in F+, a result of combining that lethal run game with Riley Leonard getting more comfortable in the offense. The Irish’s starter isn’t quite up with the elite of the elite but he’s in the correct corner below, especially when you consider he doesn’t have the weapons on the outside enjoyed by some of his peers.

* Notice where Kurtis Rourke is on there, right next to potential No. 1 overall pick and Heisman finalist Cam Ward? Good segue to start talking about the Hoosiers. It’s going to be some strength-on-strength battles, starting with Rourke and Curt Cignetti’s aerial attack (#1 this season in EPA per pass) going against Al Golden and Mike Mickens’ secondary (#1 this season in EPA per pass allowed). How much of that Hoosier success is benefitting from a weaker schedule? We’ll find out. Against teams with defensive talent more approximate to the Irish (Michigan and Ohio State), Rourke had his worst games of the season.

One area of concern is that the Wolverines and Buckeyes were relentless in getting after Rourke, combining for nine sacks. Is that something the Irish are going to be able to replicate if Cross isn’t 100% and none of the edge rushers can step up? Rourke is capable of spreading the ball around and doesn’t make a ton of mistakes (70% completion rate, four picks) but isn’t a big-time running threat so Golden can take a few more chances in bringing pressure. Both of the traditional Big Ten powers adjusted well, with Michigan shutting things down at halftime and Ohio State allowing nothing until garbage time following an impressive opening Hoosier drive.

(Should be noted that Nebraska has the 17th ranked defense in F+ and the Hoosiers carved them to ribbons to the tune of 56 points, more than 8 yards per play and a 98th percentile success rate. The following week the Huskers almost won at Ohio State.)

On the other side, Indiana has been an elite defensive team against the run, ranking first in EPA per rush and allowing just 2.46 yards per carry. They put a lid on the Ohio State and Michigan ground games but a) Ohio State hasn’t been able to run the ball well in weeks with their injured offensive line b) Michigan is comically one dimensional. The Hoosiers do this by crowding the line and bringing a ton of pressure which will result in some busts for the Irish but it also makes it possible Love, Price and Leonard could go boom enough times to secure a win.

There’s also the question of opposing quarterbacks faced. Will Howard was 22 of 26 in Columbus and then you have to talk yourself into…hmmm…Will Rogers of Washington or Nebraska true freshman Dylan Raiola playing in Bloomington? (Please refer to that QB chart above.) If the offensive line has a good day and Leonard can continue protecting the ball while avoiding pressure then Notre Dame should be able to score. I think it also helps that Golden should be able to keep the Hoosiers from running away with this even if the offense is struggling earlier, allowing time for some of the run game boom that could flip the game.

Factor that probably won’t matter but potentially could in an extreme case: Weather, as Indiana dropped 66 on Purdue in the snow on Thanksgiving weekend. However, if there’s enough wind to turn this into pure trench warfare, that would seem to be beneficial for the Irish. Factor that could matter: What the visiting presence is in the stadium, as Notre Dame fan excitement goes against whatever IU fans are willing to pay for the biggest game in the history of their football program. (My suspicion is this is going to be a great Irish crowd, but I’m not intimately familiar with the fan dynamics of the Hoosier State and more crimson could show up than anticipated.)

Factor that is probably going to matter quite a bit: Curt Cignetti is good at this. He's coached in a lot of playoff games between his time at Division II IUP (shoutout to the Crimson Hawks) (also because it is the holiday season, everyone should know Indiana is Jimmy Stewart's hometown and that the county bills itself as the Christmas Tree Capital of the World) as well as at FCS Elon and James Madison (pre-Sun Belt jump). He’s a justifiably confident guy who’s taught his team to take a mile when an inch is given, which worked out quite well against the Big Ten’s middle and lower class. He’s a perfect foil for Freeman’s first postseason foray, requiring the younger head coach to maintain his 2024 track record of quality in-game decision making or else.

(Factor that isn't actually a factor and just a request: They should play “All I Want For Christmas Is You” for the pre-fourth quarter light show because that would be very fun. “Christmas Eve/Sarajevo 12/24” would go down real smooth at some point, too. Finally, a friendly reminder that DMX has a version of “Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer” if a certain All-American safety has a big play.)

I think if both Notre Dame and Indiana play their A-Game, Notre Dame will win. There were potential opponents with more raw talent than the Hoosiers (Alabama with Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams, the defensive lines of Ole Miss and South Carolina, etc.) where that might not have necessarily been the case. But the thing Indiana is bringing to this is that while any of those teams could have a poor performance, particularly in the cold, I suspect the floor for Cignetti’s team is quite high. The Irish can and should win this, but they’re going to have to earn it. Freeman has had them locked in for three months now, but they need to come with that focus one more time or else Notre Dame Stadium will be the site of the best thing to ever happen to Indiana Hoosier football. I would really, really like to avoid that.

* Will close by plugging the GoFundMe link and merchandise one more time. If you’re planning on buying any shirts as a Christmas gift, I would recommend getting that order in quickly as TeePublic is made-to-order for each item¹. Again, appreciate everyone who’s contributed to Christmas Giving in any way.

Also wanted to remind everyone there is a monster game on ESPN Thursday evening as the UConn Huskies travel to South Bend. Niele Ivey’s team had an unfortunate trip to the Caymans over Thanksgiving but responded well by beating a Top 5 Texas team and then blowing out Syracuse in the dome. Still waiting for the return of Maddy Westbeld and Liza Karlen so this is going to be a tough test but I am not putting anything past the best backcourt in the nation, especially since Sonia Citron is now on a tear as well.

I’m unsure of schedule specifics but this might be the last print edition before the playoff game. If that’s the case, I will see you all on the other side. Go Irish, Beat Hoosiers. It’s all right there in front of you.

1. This is what they emailed me as far as deadlines:

• December 15 - Standard Domestic shipping is no longer guaranteed for holiday arrival

• December 16 - Ground shipping is no longer guaranteed for holiday arrival

• December 18 - Expedited shipping is no longer guaranteed for holiday arrival