Rakes Report #239: We been checked out, chasing the money and I been trying to tell 'em it ain't no way to live (The Miami OH Review)

The Irish overcame an atrocious start on offense and special teams to set up a big game to close out September.

~optional musical accompaniment~

1) It’s an interesting party trick that the games this season have somehow made it feel like we’re stuck in a time loop while also managing to be totally disconnected from one another. Would the elite effort against Purdue translate to a strong start against Miami in the first game back at Notre Dame Stadium since the Northern Illinois loss? No, absolutely not. It was a horrific first quarter (at least the contest against the Huskies had an opening drive touchdown) that felt like we were reliving the same nightmare.

But the offense figured it out as the game went along, the defense kept the hammer down and Notre Dame did what they needed to do to keep a Top 20 matchup against Louisville on tap for Saturday. Despite a rather nondescript final score of 28-3, there is much to discuss.

2) Any opinion you had regarding the quarterback position in the first quarter is absolutely valid. During those torturous fifteen minutes, Notre Dame had 35 yards of offense, two first downs, one completed pass, many wayward passing attempts, one botched field goal, one muffed punt, one third-down handoff to someone who wasn’t Jeremiyah Love/Jadarian Price and zero successful third-down conversions. Riley Leonard looked uncomfortable, Mike Denbrock seemed to have zero feel, Marcus Freeman didn’t seem thrilled to be there and another MAC loss was on the table. The idea that maybe Steve Angeli should be coming into the game sounded reasonable to me.

Then things perked up. In total, Leonard completed 64% of his passes, notched 143 yards on the ground and contributed three touchdowns in total. (He also helped out with the other score, but we’ll get to that). Was it perfect? Not at all. There were too many completions where accuracy wasn’t where it needed to be and the receivers had to bail their quarterback out (Jayden Thomas’ straining reach perhaps the best among them -- he does so many Little Things to help this team win). But there was also a textbook deep ball to Beaux Collins, in addition to nice throws to Mitchell Evans and Kris Mitchell that drew flags.

Here is what Notre Dame needs from Leonard the rest of the way to have a successful offense: 1) Be a threat in the run game. Check-plus. 2) Make enough of the short throws that it doesn’t turn into a late 2017/early 2018 situation. This hasn’t been the best, but more layups have been made than missed, especially if you discount the most recent first quarter. 3) Hit enough deep shots to keep the defense slightly honest. If the rest of the season is roughly Saturday’s performance or a little better, that’ll work, especially if the first two boxes are being checked.

You can tell we’re in strange times when I write “Jason Garrett made a great point,” but he did following the Love/Aamil Wagner touchdown when he pointed out how defenders were tilted a half-step the wrong direction out of respect to Leonard. Notre Dame has also been elite in the red zone, scoring seven touchdowns on eight trips.* I am baffled by the sentiment that if a quarterback runs beyond the line-to-gain you don’t get First And Ten, or if they run into the end zone it’s not worth the full six points. It all counts.

* The official stat says seven of nine but that includes running out the clock at the end of the game on Saturday. The other non-touchdown is the second quarter field goal to tie it against A&M on fourth and goal from the eight.

One final Leonard note: I think he is unfortunately serving as a quasi-sin-eater upon which people are projecting a variety of issues. Are you mad the transfer portal exists generally, or that Sam Hartman didn’t quite live up to the hype specifically? That Notre Dame has gone too long without an elite passing attack? How about the fact that NIL is a thing? What a boon to have the opportunity to add “You know he’s getting paid seven figures!” any time there’s a complaint about a bad throw. All of that is being put on Leonard and that seems unfair even if he has been far from perfect as a passer.

Our friend Michael Bryan of 18 Stripes offered a great observation that if you simply inverted the order of Leonard’s throws on the day the reaction would be completely different. The first quarter happened and should be factored into your assessment but not at the expense of remembering the rest of the game also occurred. Leonard and this offense have to keep improving but there were more positive signs on Saturday.

Quick hits: Solid effort from an offensive line that was swapping in two more new starters and still has a true freshman at left tackle. Jeremiyah Love you are incredible. Mitchell Evans getting healthier and healthier. The transfer receivers all contributed, which is a great sign and hopefully continues. Don’t love the two fumbles deep in opponent territory by Leonard and Love but that hasn't been an issue previously so will give credit to Miami’s quality punching unless the problem recurs.

3) Consider this a Winning Is Hard preview/offense discussion bonus combo. Oklahoma won ten games last year with Central Florida transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The Sooners pivoted to blue-chip sophomore Jackson Arnold and Gabriel now plays for Oregon. In the ABC primetime game this weekend, Arnold played so poorly against Tennessee he was benched in the second quarter.

In a slightly different version of this situation, Will Howard signed with Kansas State out of high school and played well there, including starting and winning the 2022 Big 12 title game. The Wildcats pivoted to blue-chip sophomore Avery Johnson and Howard now plays for Ohio State. Kansas State went into Provo as a touchdown favorite on Saturday and got demolished, scoring only field goals with Johnson throwing multiple costly picks.

I am not writing this to mock Brent Venables or Chris Klieman for making reasonable choices about the direction of their programs. I am noting it to remind you there are few absolutes when it comes to quarterback. As opposed to the transfer portal as some Irish fans are right now, I don’t recall any of them throwing a parade following the 2022 season when Notre Dame did not bring in an outside option to start.

4) Defense let the RedHawks move the ball a little but this was mostly domination. Two successful third-down conversions and under four yards per play allowed, four sacks, eight pass breakups, two picks. Miami was 3rd percentile in EPA per play, 10th in success rate and 3rd in yards per play which is all abysmal. As we adjust to a world without Jordan Botelho’s presence on the line, it was great to see Junior Tuihalamaka stepping up early. Boubacar Traore is incredible and is going to start showing up on 2026 mock drafts so prepare yourself. Bryce Young had the field goal block, what a tandem.

The secondary is absolutely lethal. Christian Gray had a pick and popped the ball in the air for Tuihalamaka’s snare. Jordan Clark has been incredible and it’s funny that teams even throw at Ben Morrison. Adon Shuler had a real bad penalty but otherwise has been lights out, which is also how you’d describe Xavier Watts, who has added “being a capable man-to-man defender” to his extensive suite of talents. If you are a pass-heavy offense you’re going to be in hell.

Miami had a long reception of 21 yards, a long run of 20 and no play longer than 14 outside of those two. The RedHawk offense has been Not Good but Notre Dame has been exceptional at keeping the lid on all season outside of the luckiest 83-yard highly contested toss to a tailback you’ll ever see. Other good things: Al Golden’s defense ranks tenth in the nation in opponent third-down conversion rate and seventh in red zone touchdown rate. They haven’t played much in the way of elite offenses but 1) That’s what you need to do against that level of competition 2) They don’t have many (any?) of those on the schedule the rest of the way, so hopefully this standard continues.

The second-and-long defense has had some truly incredible stretches. Here are some plays exclusively from the RedHawks’ last real drive, down 21-3 in the fourth quarter: 12 yards gained on second and nine, nine yards on second and ten, nine yards on second and nine, pass interference drawn on second and six and then finally an incompletion forced by a Jaiden Ausberry hurry on second and ten that got them too far behind the chains and set up the Young block.

As fascinating and morbidly hilarious as it was to watch, this drive burned six and a half minutes off the clock and effectively ended their chances even before the failed field goal. You’ve usually got to give up something and that’s a solid tradeoff.

5) Marty Biagi’s special teams unit continues to be an adventure. A muffed punt and botched field goal in the first quarter did not help the mood for Notre Dame fans and the trickeration on the kickoff return was negated by a (slightly iffy, to be fair) penalty. On the positive side, James Rendell finally uncorked a few, including a beast when the Irish were backed up early.

Freeman with some good game management decisions. Loved him being greedy at the end of the first half trying to get the ball back one more time even if that plan was undercut by the Shuler penalty. I would have been fine if he had punted it away up 21-3 at midfield with little time remaining so extra credit gold stars for going for it on fourth and one, which was rewarded with the long Leonard touchdown run.

6) Winning Is Hard Round Up: In a game designed to exemplify this section, Baylor had a touchdown lead late on the road at Colorado in a crucial conference toss-up game for Dave Aranda. The Bears almost allowed a Hail Mary touchdown on the penultimate play of regulation but got lucky on a drop. Then they did allow a game-tying touchdown as time expired. After the Buffaloes scored to take the lead in overtime, Baylor responded quickly and was about to tie it themselves when they fumbled crossing the goal line, losing the game. It’s not easy.

Missouri needed two overtimes to escape Vanderbilt at home. Michigan blew a 20-10 second half lead against USC but then the Trojans blew it right back, losing a game in which their opponent had 32 yards passing. Nebraska had a chance for a statement game in Friday primetime but lost at home in overtime to the now 4-0 Illinois Fighting Illini. (Nebraska’s overtime was incredible: Allow a touchdown in two plays, then go backwards about thirty yards on offense.) The failures of Oklahoma and Kansas State were noted above. Oklahoma State lost at home to Utah’s backup quarterback in a Top 20 matchup while LSU was tied at halftime with a UCLA team that seemed broken after the first few weeks of the season.

Texas A&M held on against Bowling Green, 26-20. Both ACC teams coached by a guy named Brent came into Week 1 with a lot of hype. Georgia Tech seemingly earned theirs by beating Florida State in Dublin, but they lost at Louisville on Saturday to drop to 1-2 in the league. Virginia Tech was a trendy dark horse and still hasn’t lost (or played) an ACC game but they added “Home loss to Rutgers” to Week 1’s defeat at Vanderbilt. (Rutgers seems quite solid and Vandy is frisky but how many teams have lost to both of those schools in the same year?) 

Considering the lopsided nature of the final scores, it took both Ohio State and Penn State well into the second quarter to pull away from Marshall and Kent State, respectively.  NC State was another ACC dark horse and they were trailing Clemson 45-7 at the half. North Carolina was a ten-point home favorite to James Madison and gave up 53 points (!!!) in the first half and 70 in the game. (They didn’t win.) Kansas was up 11 late in Morgantown and lost in regulation.

App State got blown out at home by South Alabama and Syracuse lost at home to Stanford. Washington State needed a wild fourth quarter comeback and overtime to beat San Jose State at home. Auburn lost at home to Arkansas and they're now 2-2 with some heavy hitters upcoming. Memphis followed up their big win in Tallahassee by giving up 56 to Navy in a loss (Navy almost blew a 49-30 lead). TCU lost the Iron Skillet to SMU 66-42. Minnesota ended up getting blown out at home by Iowa if you were wondering how P.J. Fleck was doing.

To close: Well well well, Northern Illinois. They got to go on a two-week interview circuit and bask in the glow of their giant win over a bye. Result? Buffalo 23-20 in DeKalb. Hopefully Bulls head coach Pete Lembo makes a phone call or two to help out the Huskies.

7) After three weeks of MAC teams (I’m counting Purdue, although maybe that's disrespectful to the MAC considering the Boilermaker effort versus the other two games), we come to what will almost certainly be the best team Notre Dame plays at home this season and potentially the best team on their entire schedule. Louisville is 3-0 and coming off a weird home game against Georgia Tech in which their four touchdowns came via two long passes, a fumble recovery in the end zone and a blocked field goal return. 

They could not run the ball against the Yellow Jackets but I trust that Jeff Brohm is going to cook something up with seventh-year quarterback Tyler Shough and some nasty receivers. Defensive end Ashton Gillotte is a terror that will stress the offensive line and the Cardinals defense has moved into the Top 20 of the SP+ so it will be a formidable test as Leonard, Denbrock and company continue to figure things out. Motivation shouldn’t be an issue considering last year’s result and with a bye week looming there’s no reason to leave anything in the tank.

Big, big game and the data point it provides will go a long way toward deciding how we feel about the offense, this team as a whole and Marcus Freeman. Win and it’s a bye week of scoreboard-watching and some light dreaming of the playoff. Lose and things are going to be real, real dark. I am excited to be there to watch even though I truly have no idea how it’s going to go.

Until next week, take care of yourself and each other. Go Irish, Beat Cardinals.