Rakes Report #225: Thought he had the red lights memorized, now there’s glass in the gravel like the stars in the sky (The Clemson Review)
A disappointing visit to Death Valley ramps up the pressure on the final two games and the big offseason decisions that will follow them.
~optional musical accompaniment~
1) That really did end up being a total inversion of last year’s Clemson game: Unranked home team in a precarious spot against a ranked visitor getting an emotional win their head coach really needed. Want to know how similar they were? Stats by the winning quarterbacks:
Drew Pyne: 85 yards on 53% passing (5 yards per attempt) and one touchdown
Cade Klubnik: 109 yards on 50% passing (4.2 yards per attempt) and one touchdown
Even though the Tigers were 4-4, this depressing result was always possible, as all they needed to do was play a semi-clean game, hope the Irish offense performed on the road like it had most of the season and steal one. (The bookmakers felt this as well, which is why the line sat at field goal no matter how many injuries accrued for Clemson.) My nervousness about this game was caused by the belief that this situation of getting to kick Dabo while he was down was simply too good to be true – not quite as funny as potentially winning the 2020 ACC title while dipping into the league for one year, but pretty hilarious. With a bunch of pundits and bettors backing the Irish, it only increased the concern.
Really tough one and not much to take from it as far as positives. The only silver linings are the defense nobly piled up stops in the second half and…hmmm…this would have hurt significantly more in a world with a 12-team playoff? The Irish are going to end this regular season with a crooked number in the loss column and no wins over teams that finish in the Top 25. Another big test upcoming for Marcus Freeman and his staff, the rest of the month in triage mode with no clear neon sign goal like “New Year’s Six Bowl” to point to as motivation with two games you should not lose still to play.
2) Breaking down this offensive performance means deciding how you want to allot the blame among the offensive coordinator, the quarterback play and the lack of options on the outside. I’m going to set the tough situation at receiver to the side for now, because while life would be much easier with a healthy Mitchell Evans and Jayden Thomas* there are talented offensive weapons on this team. Sam Hartman played very poorly and said as much after the game, missing throws (including a couple potential scores) and throwing an abominable pick six (and almost throwing another one). He did some damage with his legs and connected a couple times but overall, his poor performances away from South Bend continued.
* I am in no way saying the wide receiver room is where we want it to be but there are talented athletes on this team and I don’t believe they’re consistently put in positions to succeed. It’s also apparent the training staff mishandled Thomas’ hamstring recovery.
With ten games of evidence, it appears Gerad Parker’s promotion to offensive coordinator was a miss and he will likely be replaced come the offseason. After a quality performance against Pittsburgh and a nice opening drive courtesy of Audric Estime, things went sideways. It’s not advisable to run on every first down but if you do you should at least mix in a bunch of play-action and Notre Dame failed to do that again, somehow, improbably. Third down was a complete debacle, again*, as it’s been for the last, what, month and a half? There’s no feel, no setting up counters, no pulling a fast one on the opposing defense. Jordan Faison oscillates wildly between “Afterthought” and “Most Important Player on The Offense” which makes no sense. The wonderful effort by Parker in Raleigh setting up shot plays for Hartman remains an aberration when it should have been the norm. Estime had three carries in the second half, which is baffling. You'd think there might be an effort at some up-tempo to mix it up but no.
* Notre Dame sits 64th in third down conversion rate, with Jacksonville State and New Mexico immediately above them and Houston and New Mexico State (and Northwestern) immediately below. Friend of the Report Greg Flammang flagged that since Ohio State, the conversion rate is Iowa-level. Not ideal.
Let’s talk a bit about process. First drive of the game, you’re moving the ball and have 3rd and ten from the Clemson 31. The call is a draw play, which is a defensible decision if you’re going to go for it, but instead it’s a field goal. The second quarter saw field goals kicked both on 4th and 3 from the 12 and 4th and goal from the five while down 24-6 (the latter after running into stacked boxes on the first two goal-to-go snaps). Perhaps Freeman didn’t realize quite how leaky his defense was going to be or how his offense wouldn’t make it past midfield in the fourth quarter but scoring opportunities are precious and many were wasted trotting the kicker out there. I am thankful Sean McDonough captured our collective incredulity for the huddling in the waning moments of the game. Could have been more aggressive at the end of the first half with timeouts but I think that move says a lot about how Freeman thought about his offense at the time, which is a problem in its own right.
Jess and I have discussed this a bit on the pod this season but there seems to be no real feel for sequencing plays, as if every snap is a Memento situation where the staff is surprised to find themselves in that down and distance, occasionally with an overreliance on a prominently placed tattoo that says “Try the field goal.” At its core, coaching is problem solving, and there hasn’t been much of that this season on the offensive side of the ball. I’m including this Freeman quote from the postgame when asked about the offensive game plan in its entirety and you can make of it what you will:
“I thought there were some schematic things we could do to create some success on the ground. We didn't want to approach this thing and say, 'We're just gonna run the ball and huddle and keep the ball away from them.' We wanted to be able to throw some balls and throw some shots, but they did a good job of defending the throws that we obviously put up and then the pick-six kind of spooks you.
“It spooks you and it spooks the quarterback a little bit and makes you say, 'Okay, let's go back to the run game a little bit.' But no, it was a Clemson approach. It's not Ohio State approach.”
If you told me this entire season was a Rod Serling-narrated morality tale for any Notre Dame fan who didn’t appreciate Tommy Rees and/or Ian Book, I’d nod and accept we were all taking a little visit to the fifth dimension.
3) This game was a disappointment by the defense in the very specific way Al Golden efforts have been on occasion. The overall numbers end up fine — four yards per play, middling success rate allowed, really only 21 points given up when you factor in the pick six and the great stand after the muffed punt — but it’s a terrible experience being gummed to death, as plays that should be stuffs or marginal gains turn into four or five yards, guys always falling forward, missed tackles flaring up. There are also a couple overload blitzes thrown in, because since you’re slowly bleeding why not try to mix it up but no, those result in a deeper wound either due to poor execution or bad fortune. There was a first-half Clemson touchdown drive against the reserve corners that was allowed to roll along. There were (commendably) a bunch of stops but one lengthy drive given up at the worst possible time (an 11-play, 75-yard march immediately after it was cut to 24-16, in this instance).
The game was only 24-16 at that point because Xavier Watts came through with another interception and almost got the seven points himself. They also stood up for the entire second half after that, even getting the late fumble to give the offense a miracle chance they squandered. This game isn’t on the defense, but it would have been nice to totally shut down the makeshift offensive line and quarterback who’d been struggling. This could have been a statement game for them with the Garrett Riley offense wheezing and it wasn’t in the early going.
Not going to get into a whole section because we’re already running long after a loss but bad special teams day.
4) Winning Is Hard Round Up: I’m making the executive decision to try and not allow Notre Dame losing to get in the way of a really fun day of college football. Oklahoma lost the final scheduled Bedlam in dramatic fashion in Stillwater — knocking them not just out of playoff contention but potentially Big 12 title contention — while Texas needed a series of stops and field goal misses to survive Kansas State at home. USC kept up with Washington for a while and couldn’t sustain, picking up their third loss of the season. Tommy was calling the Good Plays and Jalen Milroe looked spectacular as Alabama avenged last year’s trip to Baton Rouge and handed LSU their third defeat. (Watching Milroe, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix and Caleb Williams all working their magic simultaneously was incredibly fun.)
Air Force debuted in the first playoff rankings then immediately lost to Army in a big upset. Miami was shut out in the second half of a 20-6 loss to NC State. Texas A&M couldn’t hold on after a late comeback against Ole Miss, falling to 5-4. Florida lost at home to an Arkansas team that was on a six-game losing streak and in order to make a bowl they need to win one of at LSU, at Missouri or home against Florida State. Speaking of the Seminoles, they were tied with Pittsburgh late into the first half.
UCLA lost at Arizona, who is now bowl eligible. Iowa State was well-positioned in the Big 12 title race but dropped a home game to Kansas. Baylor lost at home to Houston and Dave Aranda seems cooked, and apply that same sentiment to Syracuse dropping a home game to Boston College and Dino Babers’ future. Washington State was ranked earlier this season and lost at home to Stanford, falling to 1-5 in the Pac-12.
The battle for the Big Ten West is exhilarating. Nebraska was playing quality ball and had a chance at the division, but they fell flat in East Lansing, giving Sparty their first league win. Wisconsin could have claimed the meager throne in Luke Fickell’s first season but alas they lost to the Hoosiers for Indiana’s first conference win. Minnesota could have stepped up but lost in the waning moments to Illinois. This leaves your current Big Ten West leader and betting favorite as Iowa, who won a 10-7 overtime thriller over Northwestern.
5) You can debate the level to which Saturday’s game was a “must win” but it certainly was a “If you lose there are going to be serious downstream consequences.” The macro problem with the defeat is it means this season cannot be a clear-cut success — it can still avoid being a failure if things end up 10-3, a thin but important distinction — which has a cascading effect and puts additional pressure on next season to be the real proof of concept for Freeman. For recruiting and vibes and peace of mind you have to take care of the Demon Deacons and Cardinal, because God forbid you drop either of those to sketchy teams as a multi-touchdown favorite. This locker room has done a great job of bouncing back from bad situations since the start of 2022 and this is another opportunity. Going forward, my preference would be to avoid these situations entirely but that’s not usually how this sport works.
Looking even further ahead: Cannot miss on the replacement for Parker, and Freeman is likely going to have to step at least a bit outside his comfort zone and embrace Throwing The Damn Ball a little more. Have to figure out quarterback, whether that’s riding with the room you have or paying up to get a top-notch transfer that fits into the system you want to run. There is even more pressure on the opener at Texas A&M next year, because looking at the 2024 schedule there isn’t much in the way of a marquee opponent where you could get a statement win until November with the Seminoles and Trojans. I take no pleasure in listing all of this out but they’re the sort of issues that arise after ugly losses.
Only two games left with this roster – it always goes so fast but unfathomable we’re this close to the end already. Absolute shame we’re not crescendoing towards a New Year’s Six appearance and potential Top Ten finish in the final poll but as anticlimactic as this final pair of contests may seem I encourage you to savor them regardless of how gross they end up being because the offseason will be long and arrive before you know it. There’s nothing fundamentally broken about this program that can’t be fixed over the next ten months but Freeman’s margin for error going forward has further narrowed.
6) If you’re reading this on Monday, the women’s basketball team is playing at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN to open their season against South Carolina in dang Paris. There are new faces between transfers and freshmen and I’m excited to see how they fit together with the veteran nucleus against such a stiff early test. Really fun opportunity to start what should be an equally fun season. The men also kick things off at home against Niagara in the evening, the beginning of a campaign that is going to be interesting to follow in a very different way.
I’m not sure if there will be a bye week edition so we’ll likely gather here again after a Senior Day against Wake Forest with an atmosphere that could go a lot of different ways. In the meantime, take care of yourselves and each other.