Rakes Report #215: I trust that we'll get somewhere safe by the storm but I'm scared of the size of the sky (The Season Preview)
Kicking off across an ocean, Year Two of the Freeman Era presents some big challenges and a giant opportunity.
~optional musical accompaniment~
Marcus Freeman prepares to embark on his second season as Notre Dame head coach with quite a bit going in his favor. He’s been a wonderful representative of the university in every interview and appearance while maintaining what I would estimate to be a massively high approval rating among the fan base that so very much wants him to succeed. He’s continued to assemble a talented roster, even if recruiting hasn’t gone as easily as those who think this whole college football thing is nothing more than good ol’ fashioned want-to hoped. He was thrust into this role during a chaotic time for the program, has dealt with a wave of staff turnover since getting the job and had a rookie year which featured a few embarrassing pitfalls, but here he stands, in one piece, ready for round two.
Despite the struggles, Freeman performed an admirable salvage operation on the 2022 season, which is another entry in the pros column for his tenure since things looked bleak multiple times. BYU, North Carolina and Syracuse were nice wins, the bowl game was a ton of fun and of course the big one was Clemson, the guarantor for short-term sales work and an aspirational vision for the future of a packed Notre Dame Stadium glowing in primetime as a top-ranked foe is pummeled. This season presents three more opportunities to make a major mark with Ohio State, USC and Clemson, which could gild the path to make 2023 a broader data point for Freeman to reference when he’s pitching his program.
Freeman has put in the work and built up advantages but the good feelings will dissipate in an expedient fashion if he does not keep winning. If he goes 0-3 against the top opponents this year, there is nothing a segment of Notre Dame fans love more than haggling down a previously Big Win into Not A Big Deal, which is exactly what will happen with Clemson 2022. “Well, the Tigers did finish with three losses…13th in the AP poll…16th in the F+....” The cheering of Freeman as an ambassador for the broader community making his presence felt at Irish sporting events and sundry stops on the interview circuit will turn into questions about time management. Freeman is well liked enough you could see some polite hedging along the lines of “Listen, I love Marcus, but are we sure he’s up for this job right now?...” but it will come.
The other looming danger is the possible champagne problem of Freeman getting two or God willing all three of the big ones but dropping a game or games he shouldn’t and missing out on a loftier goal. There will be questions about attention to detail and handling success and everything we went through last season. The battles against recency bias and small sample size theater are always tough, but I suspect they can get quite brutal when you’re in Year Two not just in your current job but as a head coach overall and lack a longer track record with which to counter.
Let us set those concerns to the side because it’s really easy to like the potential of this team. Sam Hartman’s presence on this roster is somewhere between coup and miracle, and pairing him with a talent like Audric Estime and protecting him with two NFL tackles in Joe Alt and Blake Fisher is a strong start. We’ve heard nearly everything we’ve needed to about the defense this month, with the initial question marks at safety and defensive line fading and expected pluses at corner and linebacker being underlined and bolded. There is one area where improvement should come (red zone) and ideally some turnover luck set to go the way of Al Golden, who gives these players a consecutive year of the same defensive coordinator for the first time since 2020. On top of all that, the MVP of August camp might have been new kicker Spencer Schrader.
There’s also the general attitude that Freeman appears to have imprinted on his roster. We know he inspires a great deal of love and loyalty, but if the practice reports and general conversation around the team are accurate, he’s managed to weld that to swagger and nastiness. Now, the hard hits and trash talk have to be first translated to actual games and then maintained on a week-to-week basis with proper balance, but it’s an exciting prospect. I’m not sure what you would even brand this style of brotherhood Freeman has perhaps crafted - Benevolent violence? It reminds me of a quote from his Player’s Tribune piece after he got the top job:
Just because I don’t walk around like I have to put fear in their hearts, that doesn’t mean the demands aren’t going to be extremely high. I’ve always been a believer that being a coach doesn’t mean there has to be some constant level of discomfort for kids to reach their goals. You can be very demanding, and still make people feel good and still make people feel important — as long as they believe that you have their best interest at heart.
Potential area of concern and plausible solution: It’s very possible the offense needs additional time to cement the situation at receiver and guard, but here’s where the schedule is favorable versus last year’s immediate leap into the fire. Of the first four games, two are functional byes*, one could be depending on how things go in Dublin and one is a stiff test against NC State. If some combination of Hartman, Estime and the defense can steal one in Raleigh, you’ll be presented with a prime (and primetime) opportunity to do something special against the Buckeyes.
* Central Michigan is projected outside the Top 100 for the season, more in line with some of the recent blowout victims like New Mexico, Bowling Green and UNLV than Toledo or Marshall. Tennessee State went 4-7 in the FCS last year and to the best of my knowledge are not expected to take a giant leap despite the stewardship of Eddie George. Great excuse here to link to our full schedule preview podcast.
However the schedule is by no means easy despite the relatively gentle opening third. Eight straight games to start is asking a lot, particularly when the second half is Ohio State and USC sandwiched around two tricky ACC road trips. Clemson is going to want blood after they got embarrassed last year, and they might be able to extract it with a functional offense. Wake Forest would love to beat their former three-time captain, and the thirst for vengeance coming from Pitt would make the Count of Monte Cristo blush. (I’m admittedly a little nervous, karmically, that I have made so much fun of Pat Narduzzi over the years that the Irish will lose simply to spite me.)
Earlier this summer I tried to list all the ways this is a strange transitional season in the sport, and that was before most of the Pac-12 joined the Trojans and Bruins in making this their final year in the league. But if chaos is indeed a ladder, there’s an opportunity here, because if this Irish team can figure it out, the usual roadblocks seem more avoidable. There is of course Georgia, the two-time defending champs who won in what could have been a reloading year for them last year. They’re the clear favorites and with the talent they’ve accumulated it will take a severe drop from Stetson Bennett and Todd Monken to the new quarterback and offensive coordinator to slip past them. But stranger things have happened and I’m curious at what point higher powers throw themselves in front of a threepeat.
But appraise the championship odds after them. It would be unwise to write off Nick Saban, but it appears the quarterback issues in Tuscaloosa have not been easily resolved in camp and that’s a potential exhaust port, particularly when you consider what last year’s version would have been without Bryce Young’s heroics. Ohio State, Southern Cal and Clemson all have excellent prospects but Notre Dame will have the ability to jump them in line during the regular season. The other teams with odds ahead of or near the Irish: Michigan, LSU, Florida State, Penn State, Texas, Tennessee, Washington, Oregon – all talented teams with much to recommend, but the version of this Notre Dame team that can make the playoff against this schedule would have every ability to win against them. (Let’s ignore how stressful the leadup to a hypothetical semifinal against the Wolverines or Bayou Bengals would be.)
An aspect of the latter half of Brian Kelly’s tenure I really appreciate is the Irish did not, generally, waste talent or opportunities. There were no situations where you looked up and said “How did a team go 6-6 with Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate, Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph?” Maybe when we get to December the following will feel silly, but it seems like this has the chance to be special if Hartman and Estime and Alt and the corners can be what we hope. Let us not waste it.
It felt like this season came upon us suddenly, but I’m ready. I’ll issue an unsolicited warning that this one is going to go as quickly as it came, with the Irish being halfway through their schedule by the time we get to October. You know how this goes: The last time Notre Dame opened with Navy in Dublin, they put together the first undefeated regular season in over two decades. And yeah, the second half of the Navy game was not super fun last year and the idea of breaking in new guards against their pressure doesn’t sound pleasant but this is hopefully a situation where Hartman’s experience allows Gerad Parker to RPO and hot route his way to safety and a gaudy point total if their secondary is still as susceptible to the deep ball as they were in 2022. It’s an intriguing early challenge and as a bonus we get this stupid game out of the way.
This is the final season of college football loosely resembling what it’s been since the start of the BCS Era and who knows what further changes await us with the feckless leadership lurching after every dollar bill, so wouldn’t it be neat to make this a memorable one in a good way? Take advantage of a pandemic eligibility quirk that delivered us the ACC’s all-time leading touchdown passer. Take advantage of a defense that absolutely can be much-improved over last year, a veteran group that can think as fast as it moves. Take advantage of getting the Buckeyes and Trojans at home. Take advantage of the talent gap against nine opponents. Take advantage of a head coach who knows so much more now than he did a year ago. Win for this year, and win to help Freeman build to the many years of success that ideally follow in the autumns to come.
I’ve said many times college football is the dumbest thing to care about, and nothing that’s gone on this offseason has provided evidence to dissuade me from this notion. But I wouldn’t trade following this idiotic sport with all of you for anything, particularly when this Notre Dame team has the capacity, if a few things break right, to cohere into something special. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t, but we’ll find out together.
Go Irish. Beat Midshipmen.
A few clerical notes before we depart. Wanted to thank everyone who came on the pod over this past month to volunteer their time and help preview the season: Eric Hansen, Michael Bryan, Greg Flammang, Jamie Uyeyama, Andrew, Alex, Jess and Barcus. You can find all of those wherever you listen to podcasts. Merch reminder - I’ll be rocking a green “Throw The Damn Ball” for the opener. I plan on having the Navy review out at the normal time Monday morning but if there’s travel or wifi or timezone difficulties that could get delayed.
Safe travels to Dublin, and I hope you have a great time with a very enjoyable win!
Any chance you'll be at the USC game? I'm bringing Kid #3 for his very first ND home game, and I would love to meet up with you (or any of my other OFD/18S internet friends). Thanks!