Rakes Report #214: Show me where to look and tell me what will I find
It's Depth Chart Power Rankings Day! (Feeling good about this roster.) Plus a quick look at apparel and realignment. (Not so good.)
~optional musical accompaniment~
Good morning, everyone, it’s Depth Chart Power Rankings Day, my favorite gimmicky format to do an expedited appraisal of the strengths and weaknesses of the roster. If you want a similar discussion in audio form with smarter people, check out the latest podcast with Michael Bryan of 18 Stripes and Greg Flammang of Irish Sports Daily. Speaking of ISD and podcasts, Frosh O with Jamie will be next week so get ready to take some notes on all the new names and numbers coming to a Fighting Irish roster near you. Wanted to flag that for the next couple days TeePublic currently has 35% off, so if you were eyeing a Rakes shirt or anything else, great chance to get it and have it delivered for the season.
Okay, onto the rankings:
These are mainly based on gut feeling, guesswork and vibes but if you want a formula it’s combining the ceiling and floor rating for each position group. In other words, what’s the star potential in each group crossed with what’s the chance an injury or two puts us in a tough spot we’re bemoaning all season. In theory, a unit could be seen as being in a tough spot right now even before injuries, but I don’t think that applies to anything this year. In fact, this is as strong as the bottom of this list has been in some time, which is a nice feeling.
1. Cornerback
There are some seasons where Notre Dame coming into August with veteran Clarence Lewis, sophomore-who’s-shown-promise Jaden Mickey, blue-chip-freshman Christian Gray and nickel transfer Thomas Harper would be considered pretty dang good for the cornerback unit, with Chance Tucker, Ryan Barnes and Micah Bell providing some reserve options. Notre Dame does have all of that, but it also has Benjamin Morrison and Cam Hart on top of the depth. I went long on the potential of the starters in the last edition so reference that for further thoughts but this is an elite combination of All-American-level upside and plenty of depth. Mike Mickens has done a tremendous job turning a weakness into one of the biggest strengths.
2. Quarterback
Where you rank this comes down to two questions: 1) Do you think 2023 Sam Hartman is going to be a really good college quarterback, or do you think his experience level combined with a more talented team around him will result in a special season we talk about forever and ever? 2) If some ill were to befall QB1, how comfortable are you with Steve Angeli and Kenny Minchey to keep things afloat? For number one, I’m choosing to believe, and there’s only been good news about the backups considering their lack of any serious reps. This position has risen the most since my initial draft -- I’m leaning into the hype, baby.
Bonus content: If you listened to the pod with Eric Hansen, we discussed a Hartman profile he was working on that you can now read here. I wrote about Angeli at length last week, but here’s a recent piece on him from Jamie. Gino Guidugli seems to know what he’s doing.
3. Offensive line
Notre Dame is starting out with a pair of NFL tackles (including a likely top five pick in April) and a fifth-year senior center who was a top 100 prospect and started a playoff game as a sophomore. All but a handful of programs in the country would be envious of the options at guard, whether it’s going with veterans (Pat Coogan was lower rated but has been playing with the ones recently in camp, Top 200 recruit Andrew Kristofic started half the season in 2021) or someone younger with higher upside (be it Billy Schrauth or Rocco Spindler, who’s been the surprise of August).
To further put this into context, there are a lot of Power 5 teams who would love to have Notre Dame’s second-string offensive line of Tosh Baker, Aamil Wagner and whichever of those guards don’t start. There are three linchpins with All-American-level talent as your base and then Joe Rudolph seems like a good coach and any good coach should be able to find two good guard options from this roster. I may be singing a different tune if the interior of the line is collapsing in the first chunk of the season but this group needs to be something the Irish can count on all season.
4. Running back
Leaning on the incalculable ceiling of Audric Estime for this ranking because if he won the Doak Walker it wouldn’t be surprising and if you’ve got a guy who has a chance at being the best in the country at his position you should factor that into the algorithm. Feel better about the depth behind him than I did at the start of camp because everyone seems really impressed with the options even though they’re not bringing a ton of experience to the table. This is a group where we’ve seen young breakouts over the years (true freshmen Josh Adams, Tarean Folston and Chris Tyree; redshirt freshman Kyren Williams, etc.) so this is a trusting of the process should anything happen to Estime.
5. Linebacker
Here we have one of the highest floors of any unit because of the experience of J.D. Bertrand, Jack Kiser and Marist Liufau, but I also think there’s some serious potential for upside. All of those guys could be better, if you combine reducing their total snaps with any sort of year-over-year progress. Then throw in Jaylen Sneed, Jaiden Ausberry and Drayk Bowen and you wind up with Al Golden having some young but extremely talented reserves with which to mix things up. The challenge for massaging the linebacker rotation is that if the Irish indeed play a lot of nickel or even dime, there will not be as many total snaps available without three on the field that often. On the other hand, that also means you can keep guys fresh and playing in specific scenarios where you’re comfortable they’ll succeed.
(Earlier drafts had linebacker higher and its placement here is reflective more in my excitement for the Hartman/Estime backfield and the Alt/Fisher combo than it is concern about the second level of the defense.)
6. Defensive line
I would break down the taxonomy of this crew as follows:
Has been very productive for a full season at Notre Dame: Howard Cross
Combination of production/experience/pedigree/camp reports/upside makes me feel pretty good: Jordan Bothelo, Rylie Mills, Javontae Jean-Baptiste
Haven’t had an expanded role yet due to being a veteran who was behind in the depth chart, a developmental project who’s starting to pay off or youth but if you told me we’re at the bye week and everyone was really happy with how they were playing it wouldn’t be a shock: Literally everyone else.
I feel similarly to the defensive line as I do guard in that you should be able to pull together a decent rotation here from all the options. The Jason Onye/Gabe Rubio combo in the middle is really intriguing, but are they going to be solid backups or pushing to equal out reps with the guys in front of them? Will one of Joshua Burnham and Junior Tuihalamaka break out at rush end? Nana Osafo-Mensah is bigger, older, wiser and has gotten a taste of reps in a bunch of games, but can he make the leap to something more, as this is the third year in the row we’ve mentioned him as a potential contributor with a question mark? What about one of the freshmen, like Boubacar Traore? This is a lot of question marks, and while some of the answers will be positive or perhaps even very positive, the sheer amount of them means this can’t go too much higher.
(These next three could go in any order. I’ve swapped eight and nine around a lot but a decision had to be made. Originally the defensive line made this a quartet of confusion but feeling better about them than I was initially. These rankings have been a very fluid situation.)
7. Tight end
If Eli Raridon and Kevin Bauman were both healthy, this would be further up because the combination of Mitchell Evans’ proven productivity in the rotation (and admirable work stepping up for Michael Mayer in the bowl) combined with everything we’ve seen and heard from Holden Staes makes me really like the top two options, and Davis Sherwood has been a solid contributor in a hybrid h-back role. But if anything happens to them and the Raridon/Bauman combination isn’t totally greenlit, that’s putting a lot on the large shoulders of true freshman Cooper Flanagan. This could seem comically low by the end of September if everyone is vertical and providing a plethora of big skill that’s destructive in both the run and passing game but I’m hedging a bit.
8. Wide receiver
This is the ranking that could make me look the dumbest between the number of guys who could break out and Hartman’s ability to make this entire group look better. It might also have the lowest floor of any position group and potentially deserve to be at the bottom. Tricky.
Jayden Thomas was doing very well by the end of 2023* and has done nothing but impress all offseason long. As someone who has accumulated a lot of Thomas stock, I think he’s ready to step into the Number One Receiver Role, but until someone has carried that burden week-in and week-out, you just don’t know for sure. (We were having similar conversations about Lorenzo Styles at this point 12 months ago, but I don’t recall the Styles practice reports and clips being anything like what we’ve seen from Thomas.)
* Looking at Thomas’ game log is a good reminder of what Hartman is bringing to the table. “Oh, only three catches against Clemson, that’s kind of lame,” you might say, until remembering that Notre Dame only completed nine (9) passes that day, four of which went to Mayer. Five catches against South Carolina, which led the team.
I’m very excited about the hypothetical lethality of Chris Tyree and Jaden Greathouse in the slot, but I cannot fully buy in until I see it due to being biased for things beyond their control (being a converted running back and true freshman, respectively). If Tyree is catching three crossing routes and two bubble screens every game, that seems like it will be a lot of fun, while Greathouse seems to have a preternatural ability deep in his bones to get open and make catches.
Everyone speaks so highly of Tobias Merriweather but the Blue-Gold Game was a dud and most of the practice reports have been similar, must see it. Rico Flores has been getting praise, as has walk-on lacrosse player Jordan Faison, but they’re both freshmen, too. Deion Colzie hasn’t seemed to build on his strong close to 2023 yet, but I think Hartman could cause a reappraisal of Matt Salerno. There’s potential here but a lot of questions, particularly if Hartman goes down and the young quarterbacks need assistance.
9. Safety
If there’s some good fortune with health, I feel positive about safety but I also don’t see too many obvious paths to upside. D.J. Brown is a very sturdy and experienced college football player who you’re happy to have out there, while both Xavier Watts and Ramon Henderson provide more in the way of potential that also has some experience. Can the two transfers, Thomas Harper and Antonio Carter II, adjust to South Bend and help out, or could one of the freshmen be ready for some early snaps? I think there’s a good chance we go through this season without noticing the safeties in a negative way, but I’d love to have them flashing to us on Saturdays in a positive fashion. Chris O’Leary said some glowing things about his wards this week but unfortunately a group must be ninth due to how numbers and rankings work. A true breakout from Watts would change all the math.
A fun exercise, as always. If you have strong feelings about how you’d order them, let me know, would love to hear your process.
Two quick sad notes to close: First, Notre Dame re-upping with Under Armour. My favorite take on this is that it’s a great deal save for the fact Under Armour is bad at both making shoes and marketing. Oh, cool – other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? Very cool announcement video, super normal. Also love the talking point that we’re getting priority treatment as their number one client. This is like getting the best first-class concierge service on the Titanic. Mr. Andrews will personally apologize to you for not building a stronger ship like he did to Rose before you welcome the ocean’s icy embrace. What a deal.
I do not understand the 10-year contract, as I keep waiting for some sort of buyout clause or option after five years to be announced and that hasn’t happened yet. Feel terrible for the coaches and players who desperately wanted Nike. If the money helps keep Notre Dame independent, great, but if it’s coming down to a few million we are in desperate straits anyway. Hard to overstate how uncool Under Armour is as a brand when Asics and Crocs and New Balance and pretty much everyone else have all pulled far ahead of them in the shoe game. The Kicks You Wear is one of the best sneakerhead industry outlets and searching for UA news in their archives has a psychically damaging effect. Or just go on StockX and see what the most expensive Under Armour resale you can find is to let the free market judge. This is all in addition to the ongoing worries their shoes are more likely to cause injuries, a tiny minor issue.
To be fair, I do like both the green uniforms for Ohio State and the celtic alternates for Navy, and they had the Ireland merch all ready to go when they announced the latter. Positive steps.
There’s almost real football so I’m not going to spend too much time on the latest round of realignment which will likely lead to the death of the Pac-12 and/or Mountain West. It’s a huge giant bummer as long-standing rivalries and regional hatred has been key to what makes college football special. I do not share the sentiment of some that this means it will accelerate the Irish needing to join the Big Ten as long as the new media rights deal is anywhere near what it’s rumored to be. Perhaps that’s just rosy thinking, but I suspect people got spooked by Florida State’s saber rattling when there might not even be a landing spot for them, at least until they’re partnered with Aramco. It remains in the best interest of the SEC and Big 12 to keep Notre Dame from joining the Big Ten, so whether the scheduling agreements are informal (the Irish have their upcoming games with the Aggies, Gators and Tide) or formal (let’s set up an annual Big 12/Notre Dame Halloween Classic or whatever) there are still cards left to play until we reach the full AFC/NFC breakdown.
This is also a great moment for self-reflection from anyone who spent the last couple years complaining about NIL and the transfer portal. While you were distracted by the jingling keys of talented athletes being compensated for their abilities, a bunch of television executives and short-sighted, money-hungry administrators did their best Temple of Doom impression on the heart of the sport. I’m not predicting the death of high-level college football, but it turning into a sanitized, soulless NFL Lite that’s around for the online gambling companies to have a product to push so they have the whole weekend covered is not going to be a thing for me personally. Excited to become invested in the quirks and rivalries of the FCS or whatever second division of FBS ends up springing up down the road.
At the very least, the hoarding of resources and pulling up of the ladder without any sort of broader long-term thinking or concern for the larger community is a problem confined only to college sports and not an issue elsewhere in society. Thankful for that.
That’s it for now. Next edition should be the season kickoff on the eve of the 2023 season starting in just over two short weeks. Doesn’t seem real but I’m ready for it. Take care of yourselves and each other and see you in Dublin.
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