Rakes Report #212: Lord knows I like to roll the dice and I don't give the best advice
A weird college football season and a big opportunity for Notre Dame await us this fall. Plus, some fourth down discussion and taking stock of the basketball rosters.
~optional musical accompaniment~
Hey folks, good morning, quick bit of business and then we’ll get into the newsletter proper. A very nerdy but equally fun podcast episode with Jamie Uyeyama should be in your feeds as you read this. Jamie was kind enough to walk through the nitty-gritty of what coaches are looking for from different positions, explaining terms we hear thrown out but maybe don’t fully grasp. I asked a bunch of very dumb questions but learned a ton -- I suspect you might, too. It’s not time sensitive so if you like it can be saved for whenever you need some driving or lounging or lawn work accompaniment.
Okay, let’s talk about some football and then close out with some hoops.
As of this very Monday, we are somehow down to exactly two months until kickoff against Navy, which is a wild thing to process. There’s still plenty of time to get our arms around this upcoming season but personally I’ve again had some difficulty acquiring a firm grip because everything about this fall, with college football broadly and Notre Dame specifically, feels unsettled. You would think Marcus Freeman’s first season would most represent a major transition but there is still so much spinning and metamorphosing all around us. Please humor me as I attempt to walk through it.
At a macro level, we do not need to spend additional time on the disruptive effects of NIL and the transfer portal but you understand how they combined to change so much of how business was done so quickly. (I will, however, re-plug the podcasts Jess and I did with Dan Wetzel and Katherine Walden on this topic in March.) This is the final year of the four-team playoff before the field expands to a dozen. While I’m excited and think it’ll be a good thing for the sport, it's certainly going to come with some unintended consequences and tweaks along the way. This is the last year for Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12 before they head to the SEC, and after a century of competing in a conference tied to the Pacific Ocean because of their close proximity to it, this is it before USC and UCLA depart for the cooler climates and bigger checks of the Big Ten.
The Big 12 has four new teams in BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston while the American, Sun Belt and Conference USA will all have different compositions. This is also the final year for the SEC on CBS, which I realize is just one game from one conference on one network but that game has been a mainstay for my entire time as a college football fan and now it’ll be gone. What will we do without complaining about Gary Danielson’s comically pro-SEC bias? Sad.
At a wider Notre Dame level, we wait on some unknowns. Jack Swarbrick is stepping down as athletic director and while it appears he’s pulled off one final smooth transition we are still moving off a decade-and-a-half of knowing what we’re getting. Pete Bevacqua looks like a good hire, and in theory his standing with NBC Sports should help continue the biggest success of Swarbrick’s tenure: Maintaining Notre Dame’s football independence. It certainly seems like all the smoke points to the Irish doing just that by reupping with NBC for a nice number, but until it’s announced the lingering dread stemming from the network’s new ties to the Big Ten will keep a light chill in my spine. We must consider the most likely and worst cases.
Less important but still very interesting is Notre Dame figuring out their apparel deal. I want Nike so so so badly* but am ready for my heart to get ripped out again. Across the athletic department, it is worth noting we went from decades of cumulative tenures from McGraw, Brey and Kelly to Niele Ivey being the dean of the big three coaches. That rocks and she rocks and I’m pumped for what Freeman and Micah Shrewsberry can bring to the table but it’s very much a new era.
* I need Notre Dame to go with Nike if only so I can unlock a new level of rage when I fall short on the first blue-and-gold Dunks drop on SNKRS and start lashing out at those around me before spending an inappropriate amount of money on StockX. These are my current gameday fits but there’s no harm in expanding the collection.
At the narrowest level and most important for this newsletter come autumn, the 2023 football season has quietly but almost certainly developed a sizable amount of make-or-break, do-or-die flavor to it. Recruiting has been going well so we can expect future rosters to look good and it’s not like there is too much in the way of job pressure for Freeman in his second year but when you consider the roster situation it does feel like elevated stakes to not waste this opportunity. Obviously, every football season is sacred and every game important because it determines our emotional wellbeing but this is lining up to be a sneaky big one.
Bringing in Sam Hartman was a coup but he’s only here for the one year before questions abound about who will be the starter in College Station* next August. Maybe Notre Dame is able to bring in a Power 5’s conference all-time leading touchdown passer on the regular, but I suspect this might be more of a one-time occasion. In addition to Hartman, it seems unlikely Joe Alt (projected as a top pick) and Audric Estime (little sense for an elite tailback to return for a fourth year) will be on the roster next season. If Blake Fisher and Jayden Thomas have the campaigns we hope they do, they could become intriguing professional prospects after their junior years, and Zeke Correll could decide he’s had enough college, meaning nearly every key player on the offense turns over.
* Did you know the Irish open next season at Texas A&M? Cannot wait to spend all next offseason doing deep-dive cult research.
On defense, basically the entire projected starting front seven for the opener will be draft eligible, so you could see a ton of turnover there. Benjamin Morrison will only be a junior but there could be plenty of new faces around him in the secondary as well. You shouldn’t panic about 2024 because between steady recruiting and the transfer portal there will be plenty of talented guys, but at least on offense it seems like the stars are aligned now – provided Hartman and Estime stay healthy and there is a pleasant surprise or two at receiver. It’s going to get a lot easier to make the playoff field starting next year but a lot more difficult to make a title game so let’s take advantage of the last four-teamer.
(This will also be the first non-COVID season we’ve played in a long, long while without David Shaw and Ken Niumatalolo on the opposing sidelines. Maybe we’ll eventually get to the point of Troy Taylor and Brian Newberry being seen as proper antagonists, but we’re nowhere near there yet. Thankfully Pat Narduzzi, Dabo Swinney and Dave Doeren will be there to provide us with some consistency in acrimony.)
I don’t know, perhaps everything in this great nation and world of ours just feels a little unsettled at the moment and I’m projecting onto college football and the Fighting Irish, but when you lay it all out like that, there’s something to the idea of this stretch of time coming across as particularly transitional, right? Regardless of whether this made sense or you agree at all, appreciate the opportunity to talk it out.
Marcus Freeman has been doing a lot of interviews this month and saying a lot of good and interesting stuff but allow me to focus on a negative aspect for prime offseason fodder. During their conversation, Pete Sampson asked the head coach what’s something he couldn’t have seen coming or needed to live to learn as he looked back at his first season. Freeman gave a lengthy answer that began with “The struggles” before moving onto some examples of lessons learned, excerpted below with emphasis mine.
I became a better coach when we lost to Marshall. I did. I truly believe it. I truly believe that the sense of urgency in terms of how to correct mistakes, how to see something and say, “OK, this won’t get fixed over time, it has to get fixed now.” There’s many things the loss to Stanford taught me, but more than anything was sometimes you can’t always just go by this book, this analytical book. You’ve got to make decisions based off what you feel is important. We had a chance to kick a field goal in the first quarter — it was fourth-and-2 around the 5-yard line — and we went for it. We end up losing that game by two points.
Calm, steady breathing. Am I obsessive about eschewing kicks and being aggressive on fourth down? Absolutely, known issue, but it’s not an ideal answer. Granted, this is not a decision he actually made in a game and it’s one comment amid hours of total offseason interviews but of all the things to take from the Stanford loss, to specifically cite this example? I hope this is not something that carries over into the season.
Outside of finding yourself in a tied game or trailing by three or fewer points in the final minutes, I don’t think there’s a single occasion where you shouldn’t go for it on fourth-and-2 from the 5-yard line.* If you’re playing a great team, you’re not going to beat them kicking 22-yard field goals. If you’re playing a bad team, go out and convert, because your opponent is bad. Not that we need to relive the game against the Cardinal, but that fourth down attempt certainly did not fall into that very narrow category, occurring late in the first quarter of a 7-0 game.
* Link to the failed conversion if you want to relive it: If it’s a better play call or a better check by the quarterback, we are not having this discussion. I also think it’s worth noting on the very next drive, Notre Dame went for it on 4th and 1 from their own 41, which was converted via an Estime rush, so the response to the failed attempt was to go again in a a much riskier situation. Bottle that mentality and light up the universe.
The problem with the Stanford game was the Tommy Rees offense only scoring two touchdowns against a defense that had given up 41, 40, 45 and 28 points in its previous four games and finished 2022 ranked 99th in F+ plus an Al Golden defense that allowed the 83rd ranked F+ offense to complete nearly half their third-down attempts, holding onto the ball for more than 36 minutes and committing no turnovers. The reason for that loss was very much not a perfectly acceptable level of aggression in the first quarter.
Freeman did a nice job with his fourth down calls last year and the top two verbal commits in the upcoming recruiting class are a quarterback and a wide receiver so I’m not going to overreact but I believe we should remain ever vigilant about the potential of Defensive Coordinator Brain crossed with strains of Tressel Ball popping up. See something, say something.
Related: Bill Connelly had an interesting piece up at ESPN last week about going for it on fourth down. The Irish were 45th in normalized go-for-it rate, so above the median and in line with the sense Freeman was making good choices. Thought this was a fun chart showing how fourth down attempt rates have gone up across the sport over the last five years before leveling off in the most obvious go-for-it situations.
Let’s close out with a little hoops talk. Micah Shrewsberry took over a roster we have generously called “in transition” and has gone about acquiring enough players to field a team, which is a nice first step. As a public service, I enlisted the help of Friend of the Report Sam Werner to put together a taxonomy of the men’s basketball roster after all the churn. If you’ve listened to the basketball podcast episodes you’ve heard Sam be very smart and he's followed the details of this much, much closer than me so this is our joint commentary with the vast majority (and certainly anything insightful) coming from him. Consider this your handy cheat sheet when games start up this fall.
Signee originally committed to Notre Dame
Markus Burton – The Mishawaka product is the only commit left from Brey’s original class. There were some jokes about laziness in recruiting when he verbaled but then he won Indiana Mr. Basketball. Undersized but dynamite scorer who may take some time to adjust. Would expect him to be the starting point on opening night, pending any additional transfers. Very bullish on long-term potential and hard not to think about him while watching Kansas State’s Markquis Nowell blow up in March this year.
Signees stolen from Penn State
Carey Booth – His dad Calvin was a 10-year NBA veteran and is currently general manager of the NBA champion Denver Nuggets. Feels like the consensus is he needs some time to develop but might have the highest upside of any guy in this class. As a bit of a project with an athletic-based upside, he’s a tough comp with previous Brey teams - maybe a slightly taller Carleton Scott?
Logan Imes – Shrewsberry’s first flip from Indiana, a combo guard who wouldn’t have looked out of place on previous Brey rosters. Reports cite his high basketball IQ which could lead to some early playing time. Profiles as a sort of a do-everything guard a la a younger Cormac Ryan but with some work to do on his 3-point shot.
Braeden Shrewsberry – This name probably looks familiar. Micah’s son, was a nice bonus of the hire. Good shooter you would hope/expect also has a high basketball IQ given that familiar name. Sam’s insider knowledge: I have a friend who covers high school sports in Central PA. He went into this last season thinking Shrewsberry was a bit overrated because of his dad but ended the year backpedaling on that and saying, “Nope, he’s really good.”
Transfer from Penn State
Kebba Njie – Coming over after one year in State College. Weirdly the guy with the most career collegiate starts on the roster but also one of the guys for whom expectations are the murkiest. Young for his grade and has experience going against some of the best big men in the country last year, so would definitely expect him to be a starter on opening night. Seems like he’s not quite there offensively but should provide interior defense and rebounding and then hopefully the offense can come along.
Transfers from not Penn State
Tae Davis - Indianapolis native coming in after one year at Seton Hall, where he played in all but one game. Long and athletic. It’s possible they would have landed him anyway but serves as a like-for-like replacement for Ven-Allen Lubin. Was originally committed to Chris Mack at Louisville before switching to Seton Hall after Mack got fired. Likely starter.
Julian Roper II – Coming in after two seasons at Northwestern where he was stuck behind some older/better guards. Does not have much in the way of scoring numbers but Shrewsberry has pointed out that he was a scorer in high school/AAU (where apparently he played with Blake Wesley). Seems close to a lock to start.
Returning Players
JR Konieczny – It’s exciting that he’ll get a chance. Rumored to have held the title of “best dunker on the team” for the last two years so hopefully that athleticism is really there. Probably still has some refining to do with other elements of his game but hopeful given the makeup of this roster he can get an opportunity to work through those in game action.
Matt Zona - Seems like a safe bet for team captain (assuming we have them?) and probably starting next to Njie up front. Showed some flashes at the end of last year that maybe he knows what he’s doing and is poised for a big senior year jump. Wouldn’t expect him to hit 3s the way he did towards the end of last season but hopefully he’s good enough outside to keep teams honest in a Mooney-esque way.
Tony Sanders - Not really sure what to expect given how little we’ve seen from him. Has some good size and if he can shoot there’s a chance he sees real minutes.
I hope that was useful, thank you again to Sam for the major assist. Also wanted to note the women’s team added two rotation pieces via the transfer portal in Anna DeWolfe, a shooter from Fordham, and Becky Obinma, a post player from Pepperdine who spent the first two years of her career at TCU. These acquisitions aren’t quite to the level of the haul coming to the reigning champions in Baton Rouge as Notre Dame coaches in all sports continue to try and massage the restrictions on undergraduate transfers*, but the pair should fit in nicely with the slew of returning talent from the 2023 ACC champions.
* Reiterating/underlining something we’ve talked about before and was first explained by Eric Hansen on the pod in December: As far as adding additional talent, after grad transfers the easiest type of player to bring in is someone coming off their freshman year because their collegiate academic record is shorter. The further you are toward an undergraduate degree at another university without actually acquiring it, the more Notre Dame admissions gets wary.
Ahead of how DeWolfe and Obinma work out, the success of the women’s season is likely going to come down to 1) When Olivia Miles is fully recovered from her injury and 2) How quickly five-star freshman and McDonald’s All-American Game MVP Hannah Hidalgo is able to be comfortably in the mix. There are of course potential giant leaps for Sonia Citron, K.K. Bransford and Cass Prosper, plus another five-star freshman in Emma Risch. Very excited for both hoops seasons.
That’s it, I believe? Thank you for hanging out and I hope you all have a great Independence Day weekend. (General entertainment recs for that span: The second season of The Bear — “Forks,” my goodness, what an episode — and the second Spider-Verse are both excellent and worthy of your time. Past Lives should now be in a theater near you and is incredible as well.) This will probably be the last edition until camp kicks off but hey who knows, maybe not. Until then, take care of yourselves and each other.
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With regards to the sidebar about Freeman's commentary on the Stanford game, I would argue the fact that he was already using "the book" to inform his decisions in any capacity in the first place already puts him ahead of 50% of college head coaches in being an ally to the analytics community