Rakes Report #185: That Christmas magic's brought this tale to a very happy ending
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So far, so good on Marcus Freeman’s tenure. Notre Dame went all out in the stagecraft for Monday’s introductory press conference and Freeman delivered, acknowledging his lovely parents and adorable children and saying all the right stuff about recruiting that will, if all our hopes and dreams come true, take the Notre Dame football program up the final rungs to the top. He’s balancing a whirlwind travel schedule visiting recruits with appearances across national media platforms to further promote himself and the brand and I am not sure I have a single complaint about how this has all gone down. None of this counts in the win column but it certainly doesn’t hurt the cause in any way.
As part of the roll out, Freeman also published an essay in the Players’ Tribune. It’s worth your time to read but one part stuck out to me as a rebuttal to one of the potential concerns about his tenure:
Listen, I know I’ve been labeled as a player’s coach, and I’m proud to wear that badge. But I’ll be honest, I think there’s a misconception about a player’s coach, that Oh, the players like him — he’s their buddy. And my players know this: just because I don’t walk around like I have to put fear in their hearts, that doesn’t mean the demands aren’t going to be extremely high. I’ve always been a believer that being a coach doesn’t mean there has to be some constant level of discomfort for kids to reach their goals. You can be very demanding, and still make people feel good and still make people feel important — as long as they believe that you have their best interest at heart.
This reflects comments made by Kyle Hamilton and company on the Inside The Garage podcast that Freeman doesn’t take it easy on them but that he is fair and that’s all they ask. The combination of Freeman and Tommy Rees adds such a youthful verve to the program that we might really be able to maintain the best of Brian Kelly’s tenure only with more raw talent coming in the door each year, as neither guy seems like one who is suddenly going to start shirking details or letting the culture curdle. We still don’t know how Freeman is going to handle in-game decisions or the various problems that arise running an organization where success relies on dozens and dozens of college kids but no red flags so far.
(One thing I do not qualify as a red flag is Freeman answering a question Monday about his offensive philosophy by pointing to what Tommy Rees is currently doing and then adding more broadly “I'm not looking for a certain scheme. I'm looking for a group that's productive and does the job necessary to win.” I think that’s fine for a defense-first head coach, as if Freeman spends a long time in South Bend hiring offensive coordinators who a) Run a modern college offense of some sort that rates well via advanced metrics b) Feature the tight end in that scheme c) Recruit like hell, I don’t think I will have many complaints. There wasn’t much in the way of a unifying philosophical arc connecting Diaco, Elko, Lea and Freeman and that worked out okay.)
How do we feel about the upcoming game? I don’t want to put too much on the Fiesta Bowl, a coaching debut in an exhibition, but it should be fun in slugfest sort of way. A loss would be disappointing and potentially set up an 0-2 start to Freeman’s tenure with the trip to Columbus up next, but that wouldn’t even preclude a 2022 playoff bid, let alone the kind of long-term success you hope for when you invest in a 35-year-old head coach. But a win? Oh man a win would result in eight months of pure bliss. You’re already going to have an overhyped series of spring practices, a Blue-Gold Game likely to be the most attended in years and some presumed high-profile recruiting wins (please?) so to do that coming off a major bowl victory would take everything to another level.
Oklahoma State is a really good team, their ranking in the polls in line with all the advanced numbers, an incredible defense paired with an average offense. The former provides a wonderful challenge for Rees, his quarterbacks and the rebuilt offensive line, as we get to sort of answer the question “How would the November offense have done against Wisconsin and Cincinnati?” The Cowboys lead the nation in sacks and tackles for loss per game and are going to be a perfect stress test for any new wrinkles Rees wants to give a trial run before an offseason of making the scheme fully his own. This seems like game where you’d maybe want more of Tyler Buchner to unlock the running game and limit how many pressures Jack Coan is going to see, but that would be a big adjustment from the Coan-heavy game plans of late.
After hanging their hat on scoring points for much of Mike Gundy’s tenure, the Pokes attack has left a little to be desired of late. They’ve put up gaudy point totals in a few games but the underlying metrics aren’t pretty and there have been struggles of late. Quarterback Spencer Sanders is a veteran who came in as a Top 200 recruit but he’s thrown six picks his last two times out (Bedlam and the Big XII title game loss), and had another three in the first meeting with Baylor, a 24-14 win. Since Sam Howell the Irish defense has faced a triple option, two back-up quarterbacks and a Stanford team dedicated to attempting the record for lowest yards per attempt in a half so even this sketchy Cowboys offense will be a step up in competition.
This is by far the best opportunity the Irish have had to win a New Year’s Six game, even with a first-time head coach and roster with some holes. I think they’ll be motivated while the Pokes hopefully have a bit of a “Just missed the playoff” hangover so we can ring in 2022 with an eighth straight win.
We didn’t do a Winning Is Hard on Monday after the abridged slate on Saturday and moderately important Irish stuff to talk about with the whole “Hiring a new head coach” distraction, but I thought it might be a fun exercise and Christmas Giving treat to go through the preseason AP Top 25 and check in on how everyone did.
Spoiler: Some did not do very well. Jess has been suggesting on the podcast this fall that it’s time to scrap preseason rankings in general until at least midseason and I have to agree, but at least they give us a structure to do some dunking, which will commence now.
1) Alabama – After losing three Heisman finalists to the first round of the NFL Draft, the Tide suffered their first loss to an unranked team in years and fell…okay they’re the SEC champions and number one seed in the playoff, but they should have lost the Iron Bowl? Bryce Young is awesome and will be back next year so yeah the gold standard remains strong and has the potential to repeat. Nick Saban is the best college football coach to ever do it and his presence in this era has continued to result in everyone losing their minds.
2) Oklahoma - Played pretty poorly without losing for most of the season, nearly fell to Kansas and then finished 10-2. Their coach left within 24 hours of losing Bedlam, and they hired a guy who a) is maybe the best defensive coordinator in football b) needs an adult man to physically restrain him from going out onto the field during games. Seems like the structure is in place to keep winning at a high level but you never know, particularly with Lincoln Riley absconding with most of their recruiting class.
3) Clemson – It’s a testament to the Tigers’ recent success that we’re discussing 9-3 like a death sentence, but they did lose the aforementioned defensive coordinator, might lose their offensive coordinator, and the star quarterback who was expected to buoy them like his predecessors did not. Had one-score wins over Georgia Tech, Boston College, Syracuse, Louisville and basically Florida State. Played their best ball at end of season and next year will tell the tale of whether this is a brief aberration or the mystique is waning because it is difficult to hit on the holy trinity of position groups (quarterback, wide receiver, defensive line) for as long as they did.
4) Ohio State – Similar to the Tigers, the Buckeyes went 10-2 and people were acting like the world was ending. They did lose to Michigan to cost themselves a Big Ten title and playoff shot and got handled at home by an iffy Oregon team missing its best player but they’ll go into next season with a bananas offense, great talent base and a new defensive coordinator to likely amend their biggest problem.
5) Georgia – So, after being a unanimous number one for much of the season, the Bulldogs are either going to a) Be national champs b) Lose to Alabama twice in three games c) Lose the title game to a Group of 5 team d) Lose their final two games of the season. Can Kirby The Recruiter overcome Kirby The Coach? We’ll see!
6) Texas A&M – Proved they should have been in the playoff over Notre Dame last year by…ah they went 8-4. Rats. They did beat Alabama for the biggest win in Jimbo Fisher’s tenure but didn’t do much with that and almost lost to a woeful Colorado team on top of the quartet of defeats. Might finish up with the No. 1 recruiting class which is very annoying because the Irish will play them when those dudes are juniors and seniors.
7) Iowa State – Extremely kind of Matt Campbell to turn this team with the most hype in Cyclone history into a 7-5 record and allow Jack Swarbrick to quickly move onto hiring Marcus Freeman. I still think Campbell is a good coach for what he has built from nothing in Ames but they just lose so many dang games.
8) Cincinnati – Won their biggest game in school history at the Irish’s expense, went 13-0, made the playoff, will likely keep their head coach and got a ticket to the Big XII. Pretty good few months of work.
9) Notre Dame – 11-1 and will finish in the Top 5 for the third time in four years if they win their bowl. Had their coach leave suddenly, might have upgraded? Please have upgraded.
10) North Carolina – Okay, well on the good side they handed Wake Forest their first loss, took ACC champion Pittsburgh to overtime at Heinz Field and were the only team to hold a second half lead over the Irish in the second half of the season. On the bad side, they lost their opener in somewhat helpless fashion on their way to 6-6 (with a loss to Georgia Tech!!!) and Mack Brown insisted on wearing a horrific shiny black jacket through most of it. Recruiting really well, though!
11) Oregon – Had one of the best wins of the season at Ohio State but also somehow lost to Stanford (I know their offensive coordinator missed the game but come on) and got bone-shattered by Utah not once but twice before their coach left to take a different job. Could have gone better. They open with Georgia next year.
12) Wisconsin – Despite a rocky start where they lost their three biggest games to Penn State, Notre Dame and Michigan the Badgers had righted the ship and just needed to beat Minnesota to win the division and take a crack at the Wolverines in Indianapolis. Alas. Their savior quarterback did not work out as planned but they did find another cool tailback while maintaining a top-notch defense.
13) Florida – The more you think about the Dan Mullen firing the crazier it is: He went to three straight New Year’s Six bowls and gave the 2020 Alabama juggernaut their best game and then did not even make it all the way through the following season. Billy Napier seems like a good hire set on tormenting Brian Kelly, so I appreciate that, but this is kind of a weird job in that it’s in a recruiting hot spot but the only two coaches to win big there are two of the best coaches in history.
14) Miami (Fl) – Struggled mightily out of the gates to start off 2-4 but rallied to 7-5 (sprinkling in a heartbreaking loss to Florida State) and seemingly found a quarterback. Fired their coach in a pretty gross fashion and hired the guy who lost to Stanford and got blown out by Utah twice. Will be one of the big offseason champions for sure.
15) USC – Fired their coach after two games and punted the season, finishing a dispiriting 4-8. Made a great hire in Lincoln Riley, although a skeptic would point out he never had to do any sort of rebuilding in Norman and the Sooners got incrementally worse each of his seasons there. I’m not saying that because a Riley offense with the native southern California talent should be nasty, I’m just saying somebody might point that out.
16) LSU – Fired their coach midseason and finished 6-6. Went out and hired Notre Dame’s head coach, who is not off to the strongest start but hey maybe it’ll work out for them. The 2019 Bayou Bengals remain a miracle of a team.
17) Indiana – Ohio State made the playoff last year because they beat this team? Hoosiers went 2-10 with wins over Idaho and Western Kentucky. They lost to Rutgers by 35 but also almost beat Cincinnati? Wild. What makes it worse, is because they had this preseason rank, that meant that-
18) Iowa – Got all kinds of credit for beating them in the opener, then got credit for beating a “preseason top 10 Iowa State team” to the point an offense was averaging like two yards per play got to No. 2 in the country before they were blown out by Purdue. Somehow made the Big Ten title game and got blown out there, too. Imagine what the coverage would be like if Notre Dame consistently had a great defense but wasted it because of a horrible offense coordinated by the head coach’s son.
19) Penn State – Because of them blowing it Michigan is in the playoff so thanks a ton for that. Congrats to James Franklin for locking in that big extension before he got to 7-5 even though he apparently didn’t realize you might need a back-up quarterback at some point. Lost at home to Illinois. Recruiting is good, though!
20) Washington – Probably not a good sign when you lose to Montana in the opener and then things get worse. Coach was fired midway through his second season and they got blown out in the Apple Cup at home, meaning they did way worse this fall than their rival who had to fire their coach midseason for being an anti-vaxxer. Seems like they made a smart head coaching hire, though, so onward and upward to the team with the best colors/mascot/stadium location combo in the game.
21) Texas – The Longhorns were 4-1 with an 18-point second-half lead over Oklahoma and finished 5-7. They lost to Kansas at home. They had their longest losing streak since 1956. How has this turned into a place where I defend Tom Herman’s honor? They play Alabama in Week Two next year so good luck to Steve Sarkisian, who will definitely have this job when they move to the SEC.
22) Coastal Carolina – A step back from last year but still finished 10-2 with the losses coming by a combined five points. Still have their coach for now? I don’t know, seems pretty good, they’re playing the MAC champ in their bowl so that’s a sign of respect.
23) Louisiana – After losing to Texas in the opener they won their final dozen, winning the Sun Belt and sneaking in a blowout victory over Liberty which has to feel nice. Their coach left but this was a helluva season.
24) Utah – Was playing some of the best football in the country by the end as they won the Pac-12 title in dominating fashion and earned a Rose Bowl bid. However, they started the year 1-2 with losses to BYU and San Diego State and dropped a random clunker at Oregon State, limiting the ceiling, but still, they could go from here to being in the Top 10 of the final AP Poll so really good season from Kyle Whittingham.
25) Arizona State – The Sun Devils led Utah 21-7 at the half in their big division clash and then gave up the game’s final four touchdowns, which isn’t ideal. I have no idea what to make of this team, which went 8-4 with a blowout win at UCLA and some weird losses. Herm Edwards remains inscrutable.
The first two teams receiving votes were Oklahoma State and Ole Miss, both playing in New Year’s Six games. A key team not on the list above worth noting is Michigan, who went from unranked to conference champs and the playoffs. Was this season a high-water mark courtesy of an elite pass rush and iffy Big Ten, or the new normal for Harbaugh? Considering next year’s schedule, it’s possible they’re again playing for the division against Ohio State, although hopefully some poorer luck befalls them.
If things continue to trend the way they are, the Irish schedules are going to get slippery at the top, with Clemson, Ohio State and Texas A&M present along with potentially resurgent Southern Cal, Miami and Florida State teams looming over the next half-decade. Beating those teams are musts to continue getting into the playoff, but the Irish also have to continue to avoid the pitfalls against lesser opponents that Kelly was so capable of doing over the second half of his tenure.
Consider: Over the last five seasons, Notre Dame did not lose to a single unranked team and had just two home losses, both coming to playoff entrants. You can make the playoff going 2-1 against Clemson, Ohio State and USC as long as you don’t blow a tire elsewhere on the schedule, but once the Irish accrue their second loss they are toast until the field expands to 12. We’ve been very blessed in one-score games and as a favorite in recent years and ideally that continues under Freeman.
I wanted to conclude by thanking everyone who has participated in Christmas Giving, either by donating or sharing the link or buying shirts – all appreciated. I also wanted to thank everybody who came on the podcast this week1 (those episodes are here and I believe worth your time) and a special shoutout to Friend of the Report Oscar Garcia who gathered our six favorite plays of the season with wonderful commentary for a video you will enjoy.
A reminder that proceeds from all TeePublic purchases for December (including the shirts you see above) will go to the Center for the Homeless once that money transfers over, usually around the 15th of the following month.
I think that’s it? This is probably the last edition until the Oklahoma State review but we’ll see if there’s enough between now and then to cobble together a mid-December edition. Until then, take care of yourselves and each other and have a very merry Christmas.
If you were forwarded this email and would like to sign up to receive future editions, you can do so here.
Speaking of podcast guests, I would recommend reading Caroline Pineda’s story on the quick surge of support for Freeman, Michael Bryan’s piece on Brian Kelly’s legacy and Eric Hansen’s column from Freeman’s introductory press conference. This is just an excuse for me try out the footnote button, I don’t think I’ll make a habit of it, but definitely check out those links.