Rakes Report #178: Baby, it's Halloween, and we can be anything (The North Carolina Review)
~optional musical accompaniment~
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1) In this topsy-turvy world of ours it’s nice when some suspicions and theories are plainly proven true. Over the summer, it seemed like the defense should be able to keep Notre Dame in every game through the bye, but that the offense would need to be up to speed for shootouts against Southern Cal and North Carolina teams with potentially elite offenses. Our working idea during the bye week was that the quality of defense being faced by the Irish would be severely diminished compared to the stout fronts they saw over the season’s first six games, making it easier for the offense to carry a heavier burden. On Saturday evening, Tommy Rees & Co. were issued their tallest task of the season — score on nearly every possession or lose — and they came through to get the Irish to 7-1. Is this truly an offense that can flirt with eight yards per snap the rest of the way, or was it just a spooky All Hallows Eve Eve aberration against woeful opposition? That distinction will decide whether the “-1” sticks in the loss column the rest of the way.
2) We must of course start by discussing Kyren Williams, who had perhaps the best run I’ve ever seen in a college football game and has established himself as not just the best tailback of the Brian Kelly Era but also the best running back Notre Dame has had this century and a star whose name deserves to be mentioned in conversations about the best to ever do it with the Irish. He’s a threat any time he is handed the ball regardless of the blocking in front of him, a blackbelt with the stiff arm, a weapon in the receiving and punt return games (a 47-yarder to set up the first touchdown which was kinda forgotten considering it happened so many points before the ending) and has pass protection highlight reels. What more could you possibly want? After a rocky statistical start that was in no way his fault he now is a threat to hit 1,000 yards rushing for the second consecutive season. It’s an honor and a joy to watch him run.
Let’s also give Jack Coan some laurels, as Rees continues to drill down on what makes him effective and the players around him elevate their performances to make lives easier for both quarterback and coordinator. Via tracking by Pro Football Focus, we know our eyes are correct in telling us that things are different in recent weeks: More RPOs, more play-action, more screens, shorter depth of target, quicker releases, way fewer pressures – all the stuff we were hoping to see. The deep ball is still wobbly (going forward, let’s not confuse “Being tall” with “Good at throwing deep accurately” in our evaluations) but if he’s going to sprint for 21-yard touchdowns I’ll happily take them. I am not sure how much of the progress is “Finally running the ideal offense” versus “Going against way worse defenses” but it’s a certainly mix of the two and the results are enjoyable. We should also note how precarious two-quarterback systems can be and how the camaraderie and culture established in Rees’ room make it possible for the Irish to manage it well thus far.
Some of those guys elevating their performance: Another good evening from the offensive line, risen from the grave some buried it in mid-September. Michael Mayer is blocking in space with some real aplomb, helping to spring Kyren on the long run and settling into some of the Tommy Tremble actions from last year – all in addition to being a monster threat in the passing game. The Tar Heels gambled with single coverage on Kevin Austin for much of the night and got hit once on a nice ball to the endzone, with Austin also making a nice snag and move on a critical third down late. Avery Davis made a number of key catches and served as a friendly pacer on the 91-yard Kyren touchdown.
It was also promising to see how much the youths are contributing. When Kyren went down and our hearts were in our throats, it fell on freshmen Lorenzo Styles and Logan Diggs to finish the drive off, which they gamely did. Sometimes you look out there and it’s Mitchell Evans lined up next to Joe Alt blocking for Diggs and Tyler Buchner, who has Styles and Deion Colzie lined up outside. As someone who has defended the coaching staff’s use of young receivers I am not sure how much credit to give them considering how short they are on bodies — welcome to key snaps in the slot, Matt Salerno — but Styles is so so exciting, like a supercharged T.J. Jones.* He is going to have some silly stat lines in the years to come.
* Maybe because 2013 was such an unsexy season with the early losses and whole "Playing Rutgers in the bowl" thing, but I don't think Jones' senior year comes up enough when we talk about great Irish wide receiver seasons: 70 catches for 1108 yards (15.8 per) and nine touchdowns without the strongest arm at quarterback, plus two more rushing touchdowns.
Another nice bit of news as we head into the final month of the season? After kicking the ball around the yard a bit, the Irish have only one turnover in the last two games, and that was the interception that was likely a catch by Austin so not a turnover with competent officiating. Keep the clean sheets going against Navy and a likely shootout against Virginia where set breaks will be key, please.
3) Before we talk about the struggles of the defense, I want to discuss the man who tortured them. Put yourself in the position of Sam Howell: He came into this season as a Heisman favorite projected to go near the top of the draft. Things immediately went to hell with the opening weekend loss in Blacksburg and now the coaching staff has him basically running the option, getting 15 carries per game in addition to all the throws he’s asked to make — some of those arm angles, really impressive — as heliocentric as an offense as you’ll find in football. A really gutsy effort from Howell who has been putting up these video game dual-threat numbers for the last month. He blinked with the fourth quarter pick, but as we saw during the BVG Era, a hopeless defense can eventually crack any offense, the opposite of complementary football.
With all the praise for Howell and his electric number-one target Josh Downs aside, Marcus Freeman has to spend some time cleaning up the tackling. Howell is tricky to wrangle but the defensive line was losing both contain and their grasp on the talented junior. With the back seven low on gamechangers at the moment, the line has to come through, and while they made plays here and there it wasn’t their finest effort. Nice to see Jordan Botelho in the fray, and he was rewarded with his first sack when a wise decision to not tempt roughing was rewarded, eventually, via a grounding penalty, plus Isaiah Foskey again bent the pocket. Credit to the defense for coming through with a couple key stops, forcing the pair of shorter field goals and the pooch punt.
Great job by D.J. Brown on the interception, as he’s been doing steady work this season. This last month is going to be a real challenge at linebacker and secondary. With no JOK or Marist Liafau and injuries to Shayne Simon and Paul Moala, the linebackers remain both short on high-end wrecking and depth. Secondary is a bunch of three-star players doing their best on high snap counts, with the hoped bump in playmaking from Houston Griffith, the most highly regarded recruit in the unit outside of Kyle Hamilton, never quite materializing. Is “A defensive line that can swing a few drives and an offense that is now scoring a bunch of points” enough to get to 11-1? Let’s hope.
(This is the section where you could write something like “Wow, a game to really make you appreciate Kyle Hamilton” or “Boy, we were taking Kyle Hamilton for granted” but absolutely not: At no point did anyone in this space ever not fully appreciate Hamilton nor take his tremendous abilities for granted. There’s no word on when he might return and the possibility looms that he decides to shut things down and focus on the next level but we should know more this week. It would make sense to rest him against Navy and hope he can get back to one-hundred percent for Charlottesville, but everything here is rampant speculation.)
4) Credit to Jonathan Doerer for going three-for-three on the short ones that have been his bugaboo all season, as the Irish needed every single point and he delivered. Is Chris Tyree actually healthy? Jay Bramblett has punted thrice in the last two games, and if you’ll remember the turnover note above that’s a sign we are humming along.
5) Things felt quiet around the tailgating lots and campus during the day but I think the crowd really brought it, invigorated by the trading of haymakers and enraged by the atrocious officiating. The light show is great, the in-game hosts need to be reevaluated and the lack of both “Crazy Train” generally and John Carpenter after Mayer made plays is troubling. I think moving forward it would be best to avoid back-to-back night games and this one probably should have been swapped for Cincy, but it was understandable to buy into the preseason Tar Heel hype and put the rematch of last year’s monster Black Friday game in primetime.
(Guesses at the next few years of night games:
2022: Clemson and BYU in Vegas
2023: Ohio State and USC
2024: Miami and Florida State
2025: Texas A&M and USC )
6) Winning Is Hard/Schadenfreude Round-Up: Another bloody weekend for the Top 25 but we will obviously start in East Lansing, where Michigan held a 30-14 second half lead but whoops-a-daisy they lost in crushing fashion to Sparty and now could see 7-0 turn into 9-3 with games remaining with the Buckeyes and at Happy Valley. There was some talk that maybe Michigan would be a playoff option at 11-1 with a close loss to Ohio State but that’s now off the table. (But maybe on the table for Sparty?) Jim Harbaugh is now 0-2 against Mel Tucker, a coach who took over last February just before COVID lockdown started.
I’m not sure anything could be more cursed than “Pitt as a home favorite after a week of people discussing whether or not they had a path to the playoff” and indeed they lost to Miami, who’s now wrecked the seasons of the Panthers and NC State in consecutive weeks after wrecking their own campaign out of the gate by playing very poorly. No. 10 Ole Miss and No. 12 Kentucky were and still probably technically still are competing for New Year's Six spots but fell on the road, to Auburn and Mississippi State, respectively. No. 9 Iowa got crushed by Wisconsin 27-7 and if you’re wondering “So is Graham Mertz fixed?”, uh, kinda but not really, as he was 11 for 22 for 104 yards and a score, but did accrue two more rushing touchdowns from the one-yard-line and didn't turn it over. Wisconsin versus resurgent Minnesota will now likely decide the Big Ten West.
SMU was undefeated and had just rallied to tie the game against Houston in the final minute, but then gave up a touchdown on the ensuing kickoff return to lose. Texas blew another double-digit second-half lead, this one to a Baylor team playing some good ball, and is now 4-4. Florida is also 4-4 after getting handled by Georgia. UCLA was an early season darling but they already have loss number four after falling in Salt Lake City. Why was Nebraska favored by a touchdown against Purdue? Who knows, but they lost, and are now 3-6 with Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa still to come. Georgia Tech was a slight favorite against the Hokies but could not handle that responsibility, falling at home. Kansas State beat TCU so badly that Gary Patterson was pushed out after two decades of service.
Matt Campbell and Iowa State lost in Morgantown to a Mountaineer squad that’s been struggling all season, essentially knocking them out of Big 12 title contention and I think assuring they will not make the playoff despite some preseason prognostications to the contrary. In maybe the weirdest result of the weekend, Arizona State was a two-touchdown home favorite over a Washington State team that had just jettisoned their coach and ended up getting walloped by the Cougars. Undefeated San Diego State lost by 10 at home to Fresno State. Virginia gave up 66 points in a loss to BYU.
7) Well, after a blissful one-year hiatus it’s time to play Navy again. At least we’ll know after the first quarter if it’s going to be a palatable contest against the Midshipmen (as we’ve been blessed with the last two times out) or One Of Those Days. The way the offense is moving (and not turning the ball over) is promising, and hopefully the defensive line is up to the task of making just enough plays to keep the triple-option wrong-footed but yeah it’s tough to come off two big primetime games against flashy brand opponents and end up here. Ideally the team is far more motivated than we the fans are going into this.
Unless they run the table and there’s an extra spate of upsets, Notre Dame’s primary role in the playoff conversation will be in the debate over Cincinnati’s best win versus other top contenders. That’s fine for now, as I cannot overstate how good of a sign it is for the program that the Fighting Irish being 7-1 is seen as a ho-hum thing by a number of their fans and plenty of national observers while they angle for a New Year’s Six bowl and opponent combo that is perhaps more manageable than some of the recent high-profile postseason foes.
Bottom line: Notre Dame is winning almost all of their games, they’re doing so with plenty of young guys contributing, and recruiting remains really promising in order to bring in more young guys to contribute to even more winning ideally for a very long time and at very high levels. For a rebuilding/reloading/bridge year, this is all very positive so please please please do not ruin the good vibes by losing to Navy.
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