Rakes Report #170: The only things that you can see is all that you lack (The Florida State & Season Preview)
~optional musical accompaniment~
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What should we expect from this Notre Dame football season, which is somehow upon us? On one hand, you have a team that lost so much of what powered it to two playoff bids in three years that a slight step back would be perfectly reasonable and equally understandable. On the other, you have a roster dotted with All-American candidates and a schedule where the Irish will be no worse than the slightest of underdogs in any game. On top of that, the 2022 and 2023 slates loom, featuring both Ohio State and Clemson and requiring the Irish to split against two of the three best programs in the nation while winning every single other game just to claw to 11-1. With that sort of mountain looming, it seems it would behoove them to make as much hay as possible now.
That seems plausible: As we outlined in ranking the position groups, the worst parts of this team seem sturdy and the best parts are really, really exciting. There are multiple players who could be among if not the best of their position nationally, and other areas where we think we know the depth will produce something special. Maybe there hasn’t been enough said about Jack Coan, a guy who completed 70 percent of his passes in 2019 and is about to be given the opportunity to wield that accuracy with a deeper, more talented toy chest of targets. What if Kevin Austin and Braden Lenzy are healthy for a full season and Tommy Rees can unleash his entire playbook, or the corners step up and allow Marcus Freeman to deploy his defense at its fullest capacity? The possibilities are enticing.
We’ll get our first sense of what the team will look like during the opener in Tallahassee. A Sunday night road tilt in front of a packed pandemic house in the first game since the legendary coach died and the first real home game after the first real offseason for the new coach has a chance to get gnarly. You have a new scheme and a lot of new faces on defense for the Irish, which could precipitate coverage busts or blown assignments that lead to long Seminole scores. On offense, you have a new line configuration as well as a quarterback who’s never played a game with any of his teammates. A couple turnovers (which plagued the Irish early in this match up last year) could throw things off.
Florida State loaded up on transfers and will have two SEC veterans coming off the edge, which could be an issue for the new Irish tackles who are replacing a pair of Top 100 draft picks. Jordan Travis had some nice plays against the Irish last year, and now he’s had a whole offseason working closely with Mike Norvell* and the staff that could result in better passing production to go with his top-level running ability. If McKenzie Milton is healthy enough to contribute, that’s plenty of big-game savvy coupled with a talented arm.
* I am curious if there is a bump for teams that had a coach in their first or second year last fall, considering the waste of an offseason and general pandemic-related difficulties. I think you could also see this with players who lost a key year of development and then take a big leap in 2021, which will be a contrast to the teams returning a bunch of super seniors who perhaps are closer to their collegiate ceilings.
Still, this feels like a good matchup for the Irish, and I remain puzzled by the line that’s floated around a touchdown for weeks now. The Seminoles offensive line will probably be better than in recent years just by default, but if they’re not hitting big plays or getting short fields I have no idea how they’re going to sustain drives against an Irish defensive front that seems set to chew them up unless Travis plays absolutely out of his mind as both a runner and passer. At this point the Florida State receivers don’t seem like anything special, which could be famous last words against a secondary that still has non-Kyle Hamilton question marks, but at least as of now no one jumps out like you’d typically expect from a program with this kind of athletic pedigree.
On defense, the Seminoles’ weakest point appears to be their linebackers, which doesn’t seem ideal when they could be faced with the best tight end in the country and a dynamic tailback combo that is capable of making an impact in the passing game. They could counter by dropping linemen or bringing up safeties, challenging Coan and the offensive line to either go deep or run the ball — leaning on the sticky, frenetic atmosphere to compound the confusion — but that’s a potentially dicey proposition. Weird things happen in college football, but if the Irish can avoid mistakes, I think they survive the trip to Tallahassee.
(Normally I would say this is a great place for the Irish to make a statement, being in the primetime ABC spot with no competition, but considering the current two-game losing streak and road environment, I’m fine with Notre Dame just escaping with the W. I’ll happily take a blowout victory and a bunch of “Were we sleeping on the Irish!?” columns but there are enough marquee games in the middle of the season for this team to survive now and set the narrative later if it comes to that.)
While we generally view every Notre Dame game and season as an existential referendum on the program, this autumn could be an exception. Sure, every loss would be awful to experience and if they accrued four or more of them that would raise questions, but if an Irish team replacing this much production and talent had a nice boring 10-2, I don’t think the perception of the program would shift all that much, if at all. Oklahoma and Georgia both lost a pair of regular season games last year and things basically continued apace, just as a couple of shortfalls in 2019 didn’t stop the Irish from quickly rebounding to the playoff the following year. After such a long time in the wilderness, it’s nice that a 10-2 Fighting Irish football season has turned into one of the more ho-hum occurrences in the sport.
What if Notre Dame does better than 10-2 this fall? Firmly ensconced at the top of the sport’s second tier, the Irish can spend this season fending off a few potential usurpers and protect their station. With the way Mack Brown is recruiting, North Carolina is positioning itself as a mainstay opposite Clemson in the ACC title game. Wisconsin has strung together plenty of double-digit win seasons and some New Year’s Six bowl wins, a Big Ten championship upset over the Buckeyes away from a playoff bid. Southern Cal is always a coaching hire away and my preference is to deny an opposing team their biggest win in school history, as would be the case with Cincinnati. Running this table with this much roster turnover with the trip to Blacksburg thrown in would be impressive.
But there’s a step beyond protecting their current positioning in the hierarchy. The reason I mentioned Oklahoma and Georgia above is that they are two of five teams currently being given a legitimate opportunity to win the national championship by oddsmakers, along with the usual suspects of Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. The Tide and Tigers, winners of five of the last six national titles, are replacing first round quarterbacks with uber-talented sophomores…but there isn’t much depth behind them, meaning an injury to Bryce Young or D.J. Uiagalelei* could perhaps knock them down among the mortals. Ohio State is loaded at both quarterback and wide receiver, but some questions linger about the Buckeye defense.
* I don’t actually know how someone would go about hurting D.J. — attacking him with a Jaeger or three? — but it’s possible in theory.
Georgia is stacked with talent and appears interested in finally unfurling a 21st century passing offense, but until Kirby Smart can avoid in-game mishaps, doubts will linger. Oklahoma’s defense was better than you realize last year and Spencer Rattler might be the goods, but their overall talent level is close to the Irish. What I’m saying is this: If Georgia and Oklahoma are serious national title threats, then this Notre Dame team at its very best is absolutely a contender.
It’s a narrow path to very best, but it’s a path: They need perfect health for the All-American candidates, because while there’s certainly depth for the Irish to win a bunch there isn’t at first glance a bevy of elite, game-changing options. Losing Marist Liafau hurts a great deal, but if the skill guys on offense and Hamilton remain upright, there’s a puncher’s chance. It’ll take Coan being consistent and poised in his delivery throughout, and Blake Fisher being ready to go from the jump as the line does what it needs to. It’ll take the defense reaching its peak — a maelstrom of front-seven pressure causing the opposing quarterbacks to make questionable choices before the waters overtake them — and a secondary that steps up to help their star take advantage.
That team, the idealized version of this roster coming together? That team can go places. There are no guarantees and all kinds of pitfalls, but the Irish do have a talent advantage on their regular season schedule and that is a nice head start. If Notre Dame can tap into their depth to survive the midseason gauntlet, there’s an opportunity to rev things up to another level come November to add another gaudy win total — and perhaps a dash of postseason success — to the current run of success.
Last fall it was a real joy to have the Irish winning Saturday after Saturday amid the pall of really tough times. Over the past year and a half, I’ve found myself oscillating between acute sadness over the current state of Everything and at times almost overwhelming gratitude for the family and friends who’ve made all of this more bearable. A college football program is not friend nor family nor people but it was nice to have Notre Dame as a consistent silver lining until they ran into the postseason wall.
It doesn’t seem like the next few months will be markedly better on the grand scale, so how about another pleasant autumn of Notre Dame stacking wins up? Maybe they slip up a couple times along the way, maybe it ends in another pit of playoff chainsaws, or maybe there’s a crack and we’re able to take another step toward the pinnacle. I’m excited we get to find out what happens together.
Go Irish, Beat Seminoles. And then beat the 11 teams after them.
Couple of quick notes before we go: There are a bunch of preview podcasts up at the feed, so if you’re traveling or lounging this holiday weekend I think you could do much worse than this collection of knowledgable and entertaining guests. There’s also a new shirt design over at the TeePublic store, which is having a sale this weekend.
I think that’s it? If you enjoyed this, please consider sending it along to any other Irish fans in your life, as word of mouth is the only way this operation grows. Florida State review will drop Tuesday morning - until then, take care of yourselves and each other.
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