Rakes Report #169: Follow me into the endless night, I can bring your fears to life
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~optional musical accompaniment~
Two big sections today with a depth chart ranking and then the fearmongering alluded to in the overly dramatic title that I encourage you to skip when we get to it. I think there will only be one more edition before the season starts but we’ll see what the remainder of August brings. Let’s get to it.
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Ranking the positional groups has been a useful exercise over the years, a nice way to organize thoughts about the team and pull in disparate notes from all the practice reports into one place. This year I found the bottom to be particularly hard to order, but in a good way, as nothing stood out as a clear weakness, only a relative problem compared to some of the obvious strengths at the top of the roster.
Two key factors in this: Ceiling and floor. Does a group have an All-American candidate, or the potential to be considered special come December? But also, is there depth and an established competency that will prove sturdy over the rigors of a long season? Depending on your preferences you maybe value one more than the other, I tried to call it mostly down the middle but I’m sure a close read would reveal a number of inconsistencies to the process.
1. Running back: Genuinely not sure what else you could want here: At the top, you have All-American candidate Kyren Williams and five-star sophomore Chris Tyree, who are home run threats and weapons in the pass game. There’s C’Borius Flemister, a perfect complement who’s happy to plow along for tough yardage, particularly against weary second-half defenses. And then the freshmen! Both getting rave reviews in camp: Logan Diggs seems to be set as lightning to the thunder of Audric Estime, described on Kyle Hamilton’s podcast as “African Hercules.” For all the confusion below, I think this a clear top choice.
2. Linebacker: It’s unlikely anyone here reaches the heights of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah but there are so many dudes here. Drew White and Marist Liafau have star potential, Bo Bauer is giddy to lay out someone, Jack Kiser is steady, people can’t stop talking about J.D. Bertrand and while Shayne Simon has had a quiet camp he still has that blue-chip upside that could flash again like it did against Clemson. Oh, and there’s Prince Kollie, a freshman who won the high school Butkus Award last year, plus Paul Moala and Isaiah Pryor providing rover depth and further versatility. Rock, rock solid.
3. Defensive line: We’ve traditionally kept this together as one unit, which helps because there is always some cross-positional hopping. In the middle, you’ve got everything you need: Fifth-year captain Kurt Hinish, a blue-chipper on the ascent in Jayson Ademilola, potential sophomore phenom Rylie Mills (who seems to be turning into J.J. Watt), a returning Jacob Lacey, and Howard Cross, who has garnered comparisons to Sheldon Day due to being slightly undersized but active and productive.
At defensive end you’ve got some proven commodities in MTA and Justin Ademilola and a fun wild card who’s probably been underdiscussed in Nana Osafa-Mensah, the four-star junior from Texas. (Or just put Mills out on the edge?) Perhaps the biggest swing position on the entire team is at rush end, where Isaiah Foskey and Jordan Botelho could be one of the best combos in the country or end up replaced by a steadier but less flashy option. Alexander Ehrensberger is still quite large.
4. Tight end: Here you have Mackey Award upside in Michael Mayer, who might be the best player on the offense. Considering the snaps soaked up by Mayer, Tommy Tremble and Brock Wright last year we didn’t see much of the reserves, save for George Takacs, but Mitchell Evans showed out in the spring game and you hear nothing but good things about Kevin Bauman (the sixth best tight end in his class but overshadowed by Mayer). I’m not going to sit here and worry myself about the tight end position at Notre Dame, sorry! You could move this up a spot or two and I wouldn’t fight you because Mayer has “At least two of his plays go viral every Saturday” potential.
I would draw a line here as far as you could shuffle the units amongst themselves on either side but not over this barrier.
5. Wide receiver: I originally had this lower with a note that I was restraining myself from having it higher but after Thursday’s practice report, no more: I am living my truth. If Kevin Austin and Braden Lenzy are healthy for the full season and play like they have in camp it is game over. You also have captain Avery Davis in the slot, who had a full, real offseason to continue growing at the position after he was already making big-time catches in 2020. Lawrence Keys, Joe Wilkins, Deion Colzie and Lorenzo Styles all give you something to be excited about. But…if those top two guys get hurt and then it’s just fits and starts from the reserves the rest of the way this could be a little sloppy. I’m overweighing upside for this one and downside for safety, sorry, I told you this would not have logical consistency.
6. Offensive line: Maybe a little high, but I’m feeling good about this. Jarrett Patterson as a potential All-American center is a really good start. At right tackle, you have Josh Lugg, who was highly touted as a recruit, performed well in the final half of 2019 and who has been praised by coaches and former teammates alike. Is guard going to be undersized compared to what we’re used to, with Zeke Correll moving over from center and Cain Madden transferring in? Sure, but Correll was a Top 100 recruit and Madden has received All-American honors and is 24 years old, making his transition from facing the Marshall schedule easier. It’s weird to start a freshman at left tackle but if you’re going to do it have the candidate be as impressive as Blake Fisher, who Brian Kelly compared recently to a larger Ronnie Stanley.
I’m also comfortable with the depth here? At guard you have a veteran in John Dirksen and a top freshman in Rocco Spindler. There are also just a bunch of Top 200 guys (with Michael Carmody having separated himself of late) who have a couple years in the strength and conditioning system floating around and I think you’d be able to find at least one who was serviceable in a pinch.
7. Safety: I don’t know where to put this and originally had it above the offensive line, which would probably be the better choice. It has the best player on the team in Kyle Hamilton, but after that, you’re hoping for a leap from somebody. Could it be Houston Griffith? Perhaps, as the coaching staff certainly believes in him. D.J. Brown has been steady, K.J. Wallace has gotten some talk as a nickel option and freshman Justin Walters was a spring game highlight but this is the group that would be most submarined by a single injury. “Best defensive player in the country” upside, also the potential of a rather low floor. If Griffith reaches the potential of his recruiting ranking and Hamilton does what we think he can, this will be far too low a placement.
8. Quarterback: I don’t doubt this position will be sturdy, but when you start looking for upside it gets murkier. Jack Coan was solid in 2019 and with no disrespect to Jonathan Taylor and Quintez Cephus his arsenal has greatly expanded. Does he have a mini-Burrow-like leap in him? How much of his previous work, both good and bad, was due to the strengths and limitations of the Badger system? Does Drew Pyne have “Win a playoff game” upside? Could Tyler Buchner reach those kinds of heights in his very first season? Just need to see this group in action but I don’t have any major concerns.
9. Cornerback: Weird having it this low as I feel good about this group, it’s just there isn’t some top recruit ready to take a leap or a returning star to hold the unit down. It’s not that a three-star can’t be productive — especially at corner, where Julian Love rates as one of the best in the history of the program — but the frontline guys (Clarence Lewis, Cam Hart, TaRiq Bracy, Ramon Henderson) were not highly rated and the group as a whole was only okay in 2020. Lewis was productive as a freshman, Hart had a real and healthy offseason to learn his new position, we’ve seen it from Bracy before in flashes and coaches seem to like Henderson, but I’m having a hard time wrapping my arms around both floor and ceiling for this, so here we land. Don’t love having this or quarterback down here but I wouldn’t feel good about anything in these slots which is a testament to the quality of this roster.
Intermission to plug merch, which you can get here at TeePublic. They’re having a sale through August 21 so a good opportunity to gear up.
Also going to plug the podcast, where we’ve gone in on specific position groups (secondary, front seven, offensive line and wide receiver) so far. The plan is next week will bring a look at the schedule and freshman and then one additional broader wrap on expectations and excitement the following week.
I don’t want to do this but we’re a full-service newsletter and I aim to please, so: Some people have complained that the preview content has been getting them too excited, so I am reaching into my bag of tricks to pull out an old gimmick we haven’t used since the 2016 preseason. For a while 4-8 served as a spooky enough reminder of how a season can go off the rails but we’ve grown soft over the previous four years’ 43 victories.
What lies beneath is a rundown of how Notre Dame could lose every game on their schedule. If you’re feeling good about the season and don’t want to be bothered with this, stop reading now. If you’re already feeling down about the season and don’t want to spiral further, please do not continue. If you keep reading you are not allowed to be mad at me, as I am standing here, the creepy old gas station attendant serving as the harbinger and telling you that the last group of bubbly co-eds who camped down at Lake Willingham didn’t make it back so maybe you should turn around and head home now. I actually had this whole section written before Thursday’s glowing practice reports really escalated things, so decide if you want to chase that feeling or take a cold shower.
Heed this warning or continue at your own risk.
(If you’re hopping off here, thanks for reading – as I said, should be one more preview email before the season starts. Until then, take care of yourselves and each other.)
at Florida State: A night road game that will serve as the first gathering of the Seminole faithful following the death of Bobby Bowden. Their transfers on the defensive front are able to wreak havoc on an Irish offensive line that isn’t quite settled yet while whomever ends up getting the snaps at quarterback is able to make enough plays against an Irish defense that wilts in the late-summer humidity. A bunch of stories about how this was the night Seminoles football was reborn get published, and at least one message board poster claims the spirit of Bowden possessed Mike Norvell and powered the victory.
Toledo: Did you know Toledo returns 21 starters? And that they open the season with Norfolk State so they can spend most of August getting ready for this game? And that the Irish will be playing on a short week? And that this whole thing is set up for thousands of the world’s least funny people to make the same “I guess that’s why they put the game on Peacock!” joke and feel great about themselves?
Purdue: Jeff Brohm took Purdue to bowls in his first two seasons, including a 2018 blowout of Ohio State in which he happened to be a 12-point underdog, the same spread the Irish are currently favored by. Things are a little desperate in West Lafayette, and if you're going to be a desperate road dog against your in-state big brother it helps to have a couple special players, which the Boilers do in wide receiver David Bell and defensive end George Karlaftis. Drew Brees will be in the booth for this, which won’t be annoying at all. With Purdue having employed Bob Diaco in 2020 and being set to play UConn the week before they travel to South Bend there could be some residual energy vampire-ness about this whole affair.
vs. Wisconsin: The Badgers are still favored in this game, so that’s one reason for mild concern. This is a super-experienced, classic Wisconsin team — Paul Chryst has just one non-COVID season in Madison with fewer than 10 wins — only they’ve plugged in the most talented quarterback since Russell Wilson with Top 100 sophomore Graham Mertz. Jim Leohnard’s defense, fresh off a bye week, welcomes the glitzy challenge, with the Badgers far more comfortable with the sleepy 11 a.m. local time start than the Irish. The Big Ten West is not without its advantages, I suppose.
Cincinnati: Luke Fickell, weary of an offseason where his former protégé was touted as the brains of the defensive operation in the Queen City, puts together a masterful game plan that suffocates the Irish attack with high-end NFL prospects like corner Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and rush end Myjai Sanders. Desmond Ridder solidifies himself as a contender for both the first round and Heisman by running, throwing and gritting out enough points to pull off the biggest win in Bearcat history, which includes at least one bomb to Michael Young. Cincinnati is also coming off a bye.
at Virginia Tech: Similar to Brohm, you’ve got a desperate Justin Fuente attempting to salvage his tenure or at least do well enough to get a boost to a different job. This team almost won in South Bend in 2019 and they’ll have plentttttty of time to prepare for this matchup since in the preceding two weeks they host Richmond and have a bye while Notre Dame is going to be coming off two consecutive slugfests. They have a four-star Oregon transfer at quarterback with Braxston Burmeister, who’s a dual threat with a bunch of his receivers back. Defensive end Amare Barno is all-conference level, as is tight end James Mitchell.
Southern Cal: Did you know the Trojans’ star receiver Drake London is 6’5”? That’s annoying, as is the presence of Bru McCoy, a top ten recruit, giving Kedon Slovis — who also nearly won in South Bend two years ago — some pretty intriguing targets. This can serve as the breakout game for Korey Foreman, the freshman defensive end who was the No. 1 recruit in his class. You’re telling me that Notre Dame is going to go a decade without losing a home game to USC? And win four straight overall, five outta six? Come on.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels bring back pretty much everybody on defense and have a bunch of blue-chip defensive linemen in their last two recruiting classes who if ready could take this unit to another level. Sam Howell might be the No. 1 pick in the draft, which is pretty good, and while he does lose a lot of offensive weapons he has standout Josh Downs, a Top 100 sophomore who had two scores in the bowl game. The whole offensive line is back and maybe they’re better? You know what they say: Nobody beats Mack Brown two years in a row.
Navy: I don’t really need to describe to you what this looks like but I guess that’s the job: A bunch of long, horrific Midshipmen drives that bleed the clock coupled with turnovers, a missed field goal and a failed fourth-and-goal conversion. The weather will be crappy, adding to the doom and gloom.
at Virginia: Is it fun to play against Bronco Mendenhall teams? No, it’s not, as we saw during his time at BYU and during the 2019 Virginia game in which the Cavaliers led at the half in Notre Dame Stadium. Last time the Irish played in Charlottesville they needed a miracle throw at the end to beat a team whose coach was pushed out at the end of the season. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong is the type of dual threat type who perfectly complements a salty defense. The Irish will be banged up from dealing with the stupid triple option the week prior.
Georgia Tech: No disaster Notre Dame season would be complete without a memorable Senior Day, and with third-year head coach Geoff Collins looking for a big win, why not here? The sophomore backfield of Jeff Sims and Jahmyr Gibbs takes another leap, with Sims cutting down on his turnovers and Gibbs builds on his 2020 that saw him average five yards a carry and 12 per catch. There are a bunch of returning starters on defense, and Collins uses the full offseason to his advantage for a mass improvement across the unit.
at Stanford: They reopen the Hellmouth under the Hoover Institute while Peter Thiel finally perfects his super-blood technology, powering the Cardinal with a dark mix of the occult and science. Quarterback Tanner McKee, a top 50 recruit in the 2018 class before he went on his Mormon mission, plays up to that billing in getting the ball to Top 100ish skill guys Elijah Higgins and Austin Jones. This ends up being some stupid game we’ve seen far too often in Palo Alto.
I hope you didn’t read that.
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