Rakes Report #141: It's time we hung some tinsel on that evergreen bough
Merry Christmas week, everybody. I thought it might be worthwhile to do a quick run through some news and notes so you have something to read if you’re traveling and/or need a quick break from family/merrymaking. Nothing too in-depth and this will probably be sloppy with a bunch of dumb errors but let’s catch up.
Last week was the early signing period for college football and the Irish had a zero-drama experience, with all of their verbal commits signing in prompt fashion and adding pledge of a three-star defensive back from California. (I don’t follow the ins and outs of recruiting enough to know if early signing day is a net positive or negative for Notre Dame, but it’s a positive for me as I have to worry about the whims of teenagers making their college choice for six fewer weeks.) As previously discussed, they also added Isaiah Pryor, a safety from Ohio State who was a top 100 prospect but never cracked into the Buckeyes rotation, via grad transfer. Pryor is already on campus practice, has two seasons of eligibility left and will be good to go next season but not for the bowl.
The class will finish ranked in the high teens, which is a similar neighborhood to where the last few years have landed, but it’s composed a little differently, as the staff brought in a pair of 247 Composite five stars in tailback Chris Tyree and wide receiver Jordan Johnson and a top 50 tight end in Michael Mayer. If I’m looking at the 247 Composite history books correctly, Tyree is the highest ranked running back of the Brian Kelly era, Johnson the highest ranked wide receiver and Mayer second only to Ben Koyack among tight end prospects. (Cole Kmet was 82nd, if you were curious.) In an ideal world, this trio reaches their potential as juniors and in the 2022 season when the Irish face both Clemson and Ohio State they have some guys who can just go out and get a touchdown or three.
There are some fun guys below the offensive skill firepower: Tosh Baker is a top 70 tackle from out west who plays basketball, allowing dreams of current Ravens lynchpin Ronnie Stanley. Jordan Botelho was a finalist for the Butkus Award (given to the best high school linebacker in the country) but he’ll shift up to rush end and in an exciting bonus is from Hawaii, which for Notre Dame has generally translated to “exceeded recruiting rankings.” (The Irish opted to pass on true linebackers this cycle, content with what they have on roster. If you have issues with this, please refer to the cross-stitch.) The lowest ranked non-long snapper of the class is a fun gamble: Alexander Ehrensberger, a 6'7" German defensive lineman who may end up being nothing or could be a feature of the line going forward after a few years of development. The coaching staff missed on all their top prospects at defensive back but has projected confidence about their back-up plans, so we’ll see how that goes.
Additional recruiting good news: Next year’s class is off to a really nice start, with five verbal commitments in the Top 100 and a sixth at 104 already. That’s a nice base — a quarterback, two wide receivers, a tight end, a lineman from each side of the ball — and if the Irish keep winning and make wise adjustments to the coaching staff we could maybe be looking at raising the floor even further as we head into the *deep existential sigh* the next decade.
Speaking of coaching staff adjustments, Kelly has so far declined to state who will be calling offensive plays in Saturday’s Camping World Bowl but said his days doing that are done. (Exactly what someone who was planning on surreptitiously calling plays would say…) The coordinator duties will be split up as expected, with quarterback coach Tommy Rees handling the pass game and running back coach Lance Taylor handling the ground. You have to admit, as far as gimmicks for otherwise nondescript bowl games go, “Tommy Rees calling plays for the chance to maybe be kept on as full-time offensive coordinator” is a neat little wrinkle should that be the path the Irish take.
One thing that has become clear in the reporting following Chip Long’s parting of ways with the football program is that retaining him was barely an option. Pete Sampson reported at The Athletic that Clark Lea was calling the families of offensive players to check in with them during the season (very normal) and there is less confirmable stuff about a slew of impending transfers/early departures should Long have stayed around in addition to the general distaste many on the staff felt for their colleague. While there are still a few jobs offensive coordinator jobs open (Penn State, Washington, Arkansas) it should be noted Long missed on a number of gigs, including under his former boss Mike Norvell at Florida State despite a 32-6 record as Notre Dame offensive coordinator and some respected recruiting chops. I’m very curious to find out where he lands.
While we’re on the topic of the Camping World Bowl, I don’t have much to add as far as previews go: Iowa State is a well-coached team that will challenge the Irish on both sides of the ball via scheme but they will also be at a talent disadvantage considering as of today no one from the Irish roster has said they’ll be skipping the game. The line hasn’t moved in Vegas (the Irish remain 3.5-point favorites) so they’re still expecting a close game. It’s one last chance to see some seniors who put in an incredible amount of of work over their four years to go from the apocalypse of 4-8 to fans saying “I’m kinda disappointed in 10-2.” They have elevated this program and should be honored for doing so, particularly if they can run it out to 11-2.
A couple weeks ago on Twitter I asked how many teams were there in college football whose 2017-2019 results you would take over Notre Dame’s. You get everything: The wins, the losses, the expectations, the bowl victories, the rivalry losses, the trophies, the season-long narratives, etc. It’s easy to compare the Irish to a perfect version of the program that wins every game by 50 but once you start looking across the carnage of college football you have a better idea of the possibilities. (This is kind of like “It’s A Wonderful Life”/Winning Is Hard mashup.)
These are the teams whose results I would trade Notre Dame’s last three seasons for:
Alabama and Clemson: They won titles and that’s kind of the point of this whole thing. Is worth noting that Alabama a) Lost to Clemson by more than Notre Dame did in the 2018 playoffs and b) Had the same 2019 record as Notre Dame but with no Top 25 victories. Still, the gold standards of the game.
Ohio State: 38-3, 3-0 against Michigan, 3-0 against Penn State, Cotton Bowl win, Rose Bowl win, playoff bid this year. They did only get the one playoff appearance because they were blown out on the road by Iowa and Purdue in consecutive seasons. I hope Notre Dame reaches the level of success where fans are upset about 13-1 seasons, that seems great (and also kind of miserable).
Oklahoma: 36-5, 3-1 against Texas, two Heismans, the big win in Columbus, three straight playoff appearances. However: Should Vegas prove correct and LSU prevails in the first semifinal, that would make the Sooners 0-4 all-time in the playoff with three straight postseason losses. I am trying to imagine the collective psychosis of Notre Dame fans if we were looking at 0-4 in the playoffs, particularly if one of the losses was blowing a big lead in the Rose Bowl and losing in overtime when we were guided by the Heisman winner and No. 1 overall pick. Still, only two other programs have made consecutive playoffs let alone three in a row and that consistency is worth something.
Georgia: So, objectively, the Bulldogs have had a better run than Notre Dame: They are 2-0 against the Irish straight-up and won the aforementioned Rose Bowl semifinal classic against Baker Mayfield. But still: Would you swap? That would mean we would have blown a halftime lead in the national title game, blew another halftime lead the following year in the SEC title game to lose a playoff spot and then get crushed in the next SEC title game to lose another playoff spot. Along the way you got blown out at Auburn and LSU, no-showed a Sugar Bowl against Texas and got beat at home by South Carolina as a 24-point favorite. They have to be above Notre Dame in the 2017-2019 rankings due to the series sweep and Rose Bowl, but it doesn’t seem like following this team was that much fun after the 2017 semifinals ended.
LSU: The only team on this list that Notre Dame defeated. The nice thing about the Bayou Bengals is they’ve had a nice build: Nondescript 9-4 in 2017, a 10-3 2018 that ended with a Fiesta Bowl win over Central Florida’s back-up quarterback and then a truly magical 2019 that included the wins in Austin and Tuscaloosa, a 13-0 run to the SEC title and Joe Burrow winning the Heisman. If they were to lose to Oklahoma I would reconsider the swap because that would be so brutal with a title game looming in New Orleans but Notre Dame doesn’t have anything quite like that win against Bama so the Tigers are here.
Those are the only six I would swap and everyone outside of the Tide and Tigers come with their own various traumas. A few others to consider, but I feel comfortable about Notre Dame’s place as the seventh best team of the last three years.
Central Florida: How do you view 2017? Would you find it extremely fun to go 14-0, claim the national title and hold the parade? Or it would be eternally frustrating to know you had a team maybe good enough to win the title and you didn’t even get in the playoff? I lean toward the latter. Followed that up with a 13-1 season in 2018 and oh by the way If you take this deal you end the 2019 season by playing Marshal at 2:30 in the afternoon on December 23rd in the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl.
Penn State: 30-8. Won a Fiesta Bowl against Washington, lost a Citrus Bowl to Kentucky but can make it two New Year’s Six wins in three years if they beat Memphis in the Cotton Bowl. Notre Dame is above them because the Irish made a playoff while the Nittany Lions did not, having blown fourth quarter leads to Ohio State in both 2017 and 2018 and losing to Sparty in both of those years as well. 2-1 against Michigan, although they lost the one game in Ann Arbor 42-7.
Wisconsin: 31-8. Beat Miami in an Orange Bowl and a Pinstripe Bowl and have a shot against Oregon in the Rose to make it two New Year’s Six wins in three years. However, not only failed to make the playoff but their schedule was so weak in 2017 they were 12-1 and no one even really considered them for a spot after they lost the Big Ten title game. Also, 7-5 in 2018 and the Illinois loss this year was worse spread-wise than any single upset suffered during Kelly’s tenure. This one is basically “What would you trade for a random New Year’s Six victory?” Very excited to play them in the fall!
Washington: 27-12. Played in consecutive New Year’s Six games but lost both (Fiesta to Penn State, Rose to Ohio State). This year was a 7-5 disappointment that ended in the Las Vegas Bowl but at least they won that in a rout over Boise.
Florida: Favored to win their second straight New Year’s Six game after dusting Michigan in the Peach last year. 0-3 against Georgia impeded any division wins and oh yeah they went 4-7 in 2017, leading to a coaching change. Arrow pointing up for Dan Mullen.
Auburn: You’d have two wins over Alabama but 12 losses and your bowl destinations/results are the Peach (a loss to Central Florida), Music City (evisceration of Purdue) and Outback (Minnesota, pending).
Texas: Absolutely not.
So, all in all, the Irish had one of the best seven three-year stretches of any program in college football and considering both the current roster construction and the composition of the next couple recruiting classes they seem like they’re in a good position to continue and potentially build upon that success. A decent time to be an Irish fan.
If you’re a basketball fan, this is a very fun list of the best shots of the decade. If you’re just an Irish fan, you might appreciate reliving a certain pair of finishes from the 2018 women’s Final Four.
I wanted to close by thanking everyone for their contributions to the Center for the Homeless. Not only did we hit the stretch goal of $7,363 but we blew past it, eclipsing the $8,000 mark. When you throw in the December proceeds* from TeePublic we will be over $26,000 for the entire four-year run of Christmas Giving which is really incredible. I truly cannot express enough gratitude as it’s really just a joy to see so many wonderful people come together.
* There’s also a new design over at TeePublic if you’re looking for a late holiday gift to yourself. Anything purchased prior to the calendars flipping will have their profits go to the CFH.
Well, that’s it. Have a wonderful Christmas and if you’re traveling please do so safely. I’ll talk to you all a week from today for the bowl recap. Go Irish, Beat Cyclones.