Rakes Report #136: Seems like a sailor's paradise but turns out to be a bad dream (The Navy Review)
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1) When assessing the quality of a given Notre Dame season, one of the surer benchmarks is usually to analyze how they played against Navy. In 2012 and 2018, regular seasons that ended with zero losses, they crushed the Midshipmen. In 2015, a really good Irish team handled an 11-win Navy team by 17. In 2010 and 2016, a team that hadn’t yet found its footing and a team that never would lost to the academy. There are some exceptions — a middling team won easily in 2011 while a good one struggled in 2017 — but it’s usually a handy metric. In 2019? Pretty good.
While Navy had yet to play a Power 5 team and was defeated by the best opponent they faced, please don’t let Saturday’s annihilation make you think they were a total paper tiger. They were ranked by both the committee and the AP voters but the metrics backed it up: 24th in the SP+, 14th in the FEI (!), 28th in Sagarin, 18th in the Massey Composite, etc., etc., etc. Vegas set a single-digit spread and well-meaning analysts picking this game almost all said it would be within a score and the Irish absolutely crushed them.
Notre Dame averaged 9.4 yards per play in the first half to Navy’s 4.1. They scored on their first seven drives, forced four turnovers and got to watch Ken Niumatalolo opt for not one but two Sad Field Goals, one down 38-0 and one down 52-17. Ian Book and Chase Claypool tied records set by Brady Quinn and Maurice Stovall* and the Bob Elliott Memorial Institute for Option Studies came through yet again. After allowing the Midshipmen to gain some yards on their first drive, the defense was exceptional. On a day that could have been a painful slog it was instead a spirited celebration as a team that was left for dead a few weeks ago put up their second straight 30-point win.
* When we talk about the great Irish wide receivers, we really should put more respect on MoSto’s name.
2) One thing you must remember about college football teams is that they are not static entities. They often get better or worse (and sometimes better or worse again) over the course of the season because players get hurt or healthy and players improve or hit walls while coaches tweak and fiddle and because human emotion is a real thing that affects performance. This is extremely apparent in the Notre Dame offense, particularly with Book. If you told me the Irish quarterback drowned in the wash of Ann Arbor and the ensuing social media scorn of fans only to be reborn a new man on the final drive against Virginia Tech, I would nod along with the theory. It’s not like the Duke or Navy defenses are elite but he’s been so good, with some of the throws he made viable against any level of opposition. That perfect bomb to Braden Lenzy? Buying time to deliver a third-down strike to Lawrence Keys, who attended Claypool’s seminar on sideline catches this week? Putting the ball on the money on crossing routes to lead his receivers and standing in the pocket when Navy would send waves of pressure? This stuff is harder against better defenses but he wasn’t doing it against comparable teams earlier this year and now he is.
The whole offense feels revitalized. Chris Finke looked like 2018 Chris Finke again. Claypool is a beast and we may need to start having some All-BK-at-ND conversations. Keys and Lenzy are in the mix and while it was a quiet receiving day for Cole Kmet it’s not like we don’t know what he’s capable of. With advantages in the air and Chip Long wisely opting to throw haymakers that would bury the Midshipmen, the Irish didn’t run the ball much in the brief stretch where the game was competitive and when they did it wasn’t particularly effective. However, the backs were strong in pass protection, working with the offensive line to give Book plenty of time.
3) Malcolm Perry was really hyped up coming into this game and did some nifty stuff to keep plays alive but he also tried to outrun JOK and Kyle Hamilton and that did not work out well for him. Drew White had nine tackles in the first half! Khalid Kareem was an absolute force with two forced fumbles and a pass deflection, MTA ate a guy and Paul Moala had one the niftiest plays you will ever see corralling an option pitch, catching it on the fly and cruising in for a score. The front seven did not play well against the Wolverines but in the last three games they have absolutely crushed and it’s been fun to see.
(Quick circle back to a prior defensive scheme: In his last two games, both on the road and both USC victories, Kedon Slovis has thrown for a combined 838 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging over 11 yards per attempt. Even though Lea was working with about one and a half functioning corners he managed to hold Slovis to seven yards per attempt and got the win. Maybe he could have cranked up the pressure a little bit in the fourth quarter but that was a great game plan. Also, if the Trojans can beat UCLA on Saturday, they’ll finish the season 8-4, so a pretty solid effort considering the injuries they’ve dealt with and the fact Clay Helton has a constant look of befuddlement on the sidelines.)
4) I know there was some minor consternation about not pulling Book a little sooner but Trevor Lawrence was in on the third quarter drive that made it 45-3 against Wake Forest and Justin Herbert was in with three minutes left in a 34-6 game. Coaches tend to leave their guys in and Brian Kelly isn’t an exception. He also could have had Phil throw it a few more times but you know it’s a good week for the team when the most . miserable fans are reduced to complaining about the playcalling for the back-up QB in garbage time.
5) Coming off a couple blowout wins is probably when we should start the process of altering the Navy series so it’s not annual. I understand some people love the alma maters playing and think debts should be paid in perpetuity but the Naval Academy will be fine without playing the Irish every year. Maybe two on, two off, or a neutral site game every three years or something like that? Notre Dame just beat a Top 25 team by 90 and they’re not going to get any credit because it’s Navy. What’s the point of playing a game that usually isn’t fun to watch (the last two years a wonderful exception) and has no upside, only downside? I know we love Traditions but it’s okay to modernize a bit.
6) Winning Is Hard/Schadenfreude Round-Up: Another really fun day of college football. We’ll begin in Waco, where Oklahoma no-showed the start of their game against Baylor and fell behind 28-3 only for the Bears to find themselves unable to sustain any second half offense or get the Sooners off the field, blowing the lead and taking their first loss of the season. I am very interested in Baylor’ next game, as they’ll be hosting 6-4 Texas, who lost to Iowa State this weekend. A lot of potential Lonestar State narratives coming out of this clash between two third-year coaches, one of whom is very much overachieving and the sure-fire, slam-dunk hire who is certainly not doing that.
Some Notre Dame fans were starting to eye P.J. Fleck so by rule he had to lose to Iowa, the Golden Gophers undefeated season coming to an end. Fleck got a personal foul for running onto the field and partook in some creative timeout management down the stretch so we will see if the loss results in any kind of hangover in what should be a miserable trip to Evanston. Penn State had their hands full with Indiana, Michigan probably accelerated the end of the Mark Dantonio Era, Nebraska is most likely going to miss a bowl after being the preseason pick to win the division and in the most damning news of the weekend Ohio State allowed Rutgers to score 21 points.
Auburn lost at home to Georgia despite a late comeback attempt and there’s at least a small chance we see Gus on the Arkansas sidelines in South Bend. Stanford had 6 rushing yards on 10 attempts in a blowout loss to Wazzu. Arizona State made a very curious two-point decision and lost at Oregon State, who’s now 5-5. Arizona got smashed at Oregon and Kevin Sumlin is going to miss a bowl unless he can defeat both the Utah juggernaut and Herm. LSU gave up 400 yards rushing to Ole Miss but still handled business in Oxford. Kansas State lost at home to West Virginia as a two-touchdown favorite. Duke is just very bad now and got crushed by a previously wayward Syracuse team.
That garbage Louisville team Notre Dame only beat by 18 on the road? They handed Dave Doeren his fourth straight loss, are going bowling and could finish 8-4. Virginia Tech has won five of their last six, the last two blowouts, and as mentioned above the Trojans are a win away from 8-4. It’s likely the Virginia/Virginia Tech victor will win the division, giving the Irish consecutive Transitive Coastal Division Titles but unfortunately that also means the winner will almost certainly not finish ranked because Clemson will drop a nuke on them. Also a friendly reminder that all the teams Notre Dame beat would have better records and higher rankings if they hadn’t, you know, lost to Notre Dame.
7) How you play is just as important as who you play and the Irish have played two great games in a row following a good effort that didn’t quite seem that way because of a 99-yard-fumble return. It’s unfortunate that Notre Dame won’t have the opportunity for a marquee win this season because they disappointed on the road twice and no other top-tier opponent stepped up but that doesn’t mean the season is a waste.
If the Irish can close this thing out at 10-2 despite losing Hainsey and Okwara and Hayes and Kraemer and Young and Austin and missing Kmet to start the season and Crawford for the USC game and Jafar and Jahmir for stretches, it would be really cool. I understand a lot of people tuned out after the Michigan game and I totally understand because your hobbies should not make you miserable and if separation from college football is what you needed for a pleasant November then God bless but you’re missing some really fun stuff.
There is a giant Canadian who cannot be stopped, dazzling whether he’s skying over guys or perfectly placing a toe a millimeter from the paint on the sideline. You are seeing Asmar Bilal, a senior who many beat writers said wasn’t any good all offseason, come through with a great year. You’re missing the freshman prodigy at safety who flashes why you’re only going to get three seasons of him a few times a game. You’re missing Lenzy and Keys show the potential of next year’s receiving corps while JOK and White show that linebacker is going to be just fine for the next couple years.
A storyline we’ve really only seen under Kelly in Year One that remains possible for 2019 Is The Team That Falls Out Of The National Title Conversation By November But Closes Strong, Ends Up Ranked Surprisingly High and Carries Some Residual Hype Into The Following Season. The Irish are currently trending that way but just because you’ve played a couple of good games and two uninspiring opponents await on the docket doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed. The Boston College program exists not to have any accomplishments of its own but to ruin things for others and they’ll try to do that in the home finale. Stanford looks completely washed but again I will believe Notre Dame can win in Palo Alto when they win in Palo Alto.
Two more games. Get two more wins, let’s keep the home win streak going, the ten-win season streak going and force the committee to say no to this with regards to a New Years Six bid. The seniors who we will be honored Saturday started their careers 4-8 but had the work ethic and dedication to Notre Dame to turn around and embark on what is currently a 30-6 run. It would be an absolute shame to let Boston College stop that from reaching 31-6 so let’s win instead.
Go Irish. Beat Eagles. Keep going.
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