Rakes Report #120: Know a few things but we still got a lot to learn

Hello and happy first Report of 2019, friends. The arc of the narrative surrounding Notre Dame football has changed quite a bit since we last spoke, when the Irish and Sooners were frauds and Georgia had been screwed out of a spot in the playoff. The following night the Bulldogs had to scrap and claw just to make the final score respectable against Texas, a team that came into the game as a nearly two-touchdown underdog, dropping Kirby Smart and friends to three losses on the season. Any legitimate remaining sentiment that the Irish didn’t belong was eliminated when a) Alabama gave up more points in the first half than Notre Dame did in the entire game and b) Lost by one more point than Notre Dame did.

We are not in this for moral victories but it’s a relief to know that Notre Dame — with Julian Love injured, shaky quarterback play and some bad replay breaks — was down but six points with a few minutes to go in the second quarter against the first 15-0 team since the 19th century. 30-3 remains a disappointment but dang was Clemson good.

(Since 2015, Clemson has playoff wins by 20 over Oklahoma, 27 over Notre Dame, 28 over Alabama and 31 over Ohio State. That is nuts.)

Regarding future playoff discussions, the Irish are officially back where they were before kickoff in Arlington and every year prior: They’re in at 12-0, they’re out at 10-2 and 11-1 will depend on the quality of the Irish schedule and circumstances in college football. (11-1 Notre Dame doesn’t get in this year, 11-1 Notre Dame would have been in easily last year and 2015 would have been close with Oklahoma.) Again, the best solution for any sports-related woes is just to win games so keep doing that and we’ll be all right.

This edition is mostly going to be a bit of a hodge podge, clearing the deck of some final regular season stuff so pick your way through it or shelve it until a rainy/snowy day or whatever. Will we do another one after real signing day next month? Maybe. Will definitely have a few podcasts so keep your eyes on that. Onward.

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Some player movement news, and let’s start with the good stuff: Both Khalid Kareem and Julian Okwara announced they would be returning for their senior seasons, meaning the Notre Dame defensive end rotation could be real, real nasty this fall. (More on this below.) This is really huge, as the two combined for 22.5 tackles for loss and 29 quarterback hurries in 2018. Good, good times. Also, there had been some discussion that Chase Claypool might opt to leave early but he is returning for his senior year.

Bittersweet news: Our beautiful star child Julian Love is taking his skills to the NFL. When you already have the Notre Dame record for career pass break ups and sundry All-American honors, there’s little left to prove but it’s still sad to see a player so dominant head out the door. Does this suck because Love would likely have been worth an extra win or two next season? Yup! Do we celebrate his great three years and wish him nothing but the best? Also yes. Can’t wait to watch him tearing it up on Sundays while getting paid. (More on his excellence below.)

Miles Boykin also announced that he would not be exercising his fifth year. Notre Dame fans seem less torn up about this with an eye on some of the exciting prospects behind him, but man, this one hurts too because Boykin was real, real good. He was a perfect fit for both Ian Book, a large target capable of climbing the ladder or executing body control on medium-range sideline throws, and for Chip Long’s offense, with his ability to just dominate while blocking. (Remember him killing a guy against USC? Good times.) He went out with a great effort, going 5 for 69 against an incredible Clemson defense, also drawing two pass interference flags and getting open on a number of other plays where Book didn’t find him. Thank you to Miles for the LSU catch and the Pitt catch and the 19-catch/261 yards/3 touchdown stretch against Stanford and Virginia Tech. A helluva senior season.

Also: Alize Mack had previously announced he would be participating in the Senior Bowl and that is still happening, Brandon Wimbush is graduate transferring as we all expected and defensive tackle Micah Dew-Treadway will also be grad transferring. On the coaching front, running backs coach Autry Denson is interviewing for the head coaching position at Charleston Southern and appears to be the favorite so the Irish may be looking for a replacement for the Irish legend. (Depending on when you’re reading this and if I think to check the latest news before sending it, this news might already be official.)

Oh, and some movement outside of Notre Dame: Long-time Southern Cal offensive coordinator and Trojan legend Kliff Kingsbury will be the new head coach of the Arizona Cardinals while Michigan’s defensive line and linebacker coaches were both hired away by Ohio State.

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I was going to save this for a future edition but let’s go ahead and take a quick look at the various position groups heading into next season. There will be further attrition via transfer, injury or other offseason shenanigans but this is what it looks like for now at this moment in time.

Quarterback: You will have Ian Book in his fourth year in the program backed up by redshirt freshman and Top 100 prospect Phil Jurkovec, so pretty solid. If we get to the point where we’re deciding if incoming freshman Brendan Clark should be getting snaps or if instead Avery Davis should convert back over to quarterback, the season will have gone off the rails just a bit.

Running back: Have to replace Dexter, which is not ideal, but Jafar Armstrong showed some flashes in his first year at the position. Tony Jones, Jr. is a good complementary player but the home run hitter will either have to be Armstrong or one of the kids (sophomores Jahmir Smith and C’Borius Flemister, incoming four-star freshman Kyren Williams). One of the big misses in the last few recruiting classes is a no-doubter here, but Williams has the potential to maybe scratch the level of the Williams he’s replacing.

Wide receiver: Two of the spots are locked down by Chase Claypool and Chris Finke, which is nice, and then you have to hope that you get a mini-leap from either Kevin Austin (Top 100 blue-chipper who showed some flashes), Michael Young (a rising junior who the staff seems to like) or one of the other freshmen that have all kinds of speed but didn’t log action (Braden Lenzy, Lawrence Keys). Could we see more from Davis in the slot? This is the other spot where a big-time freshman would be nice, but recruiting folks seem to really like Kendall Abdur-Rahman, an explosive athlete who’s going to need to learn the position after playing quarterback in high school. There are a few other guys on the depth chart here I didn’t mention so hopefully that jinxes them into a sterling campaign.

Tight end: A great sign for next season is if Cole Kmet is challenging for the Mackey Award, a real possibility considering his pedigree, size and flashes he’s shown. Brock Wright will be your main blocking tight end and then we’ll hope to get something from redshirt freshmen Tommy Tremble (more of a receiver) and/or George Takacs (6’6”, 250). No freshmen in this class but the Irish already have verbals from the top two tight ends in next year’s class so the pipeline continues.

Offensive line: This is the group that has to be great considering the amount of both talent and returning experience. I’ve been among the upper quintile of Notre Dame supporters for Jeff Quinn bullishness (although this doesn’t take a lot, since his hiring led much of the fan base to roam the streets groaning “Crony hire”) and this is where he needs to back up that relative faith. Juniors Robert Hainsey (84th in the 247 Composite) and Aaron Banks (166th) have experience and Josh Lugg (120th) is right there with them as far as pedigree. Seniors Tommy Kraemer (26th) and Liam Eichenberg (80th) were both Top 100 players who started a combined 23 games this year. Trevor Ruhland is a fifth-year senior who got action this year and seems set to step in at center.

Additionally, there’s a quartet of four-star freshmen in the incoming class in addition to second-year Jarrett Patterson, who earned some camp buzz as a freshman. It’s okay for your line to take a dip the year after losing the best two rookie offensive linemen in the NFL and then you also lose your captain left guard before October hits due to injury, but the Irish recruit offensive linemen as well as anybody which means their offensive line should play as well as anybody, particularly in seasons where they’re returning four of five starters. High bar here.

Defensive line: Ooooo baby baby. There are not going to be many teams that have a better defensive end rotation than Okwara/Kareem/Daelin Hayes/Ade Ogundeji, and it goes deeper than that after Justin Ademilola and Jamir Jones both showed a little something this season. It goes even deeper than that if you want to include incoming freshman NaNa Osafah-Mensah (138th in the composite but five-star name) and potential commit Isaiah Foskey (168th), who many prognosticators have pegged to the Irish. This is pretty good stuff.

Defensive tackle loses both starters with Jerry Tillery and Jonathan Bonner moving on, but there is enough material to hopefully maintain solid play. Junior MTA, junior Kurt Hinish and sophomore Jayson Ademilola make a nice core and then you have to patch something together with either redshirt freshman Ja’Mion Franklin (recovering from a leg injury suffered in September), Jacob Lacey (four-star freshman who’s early enrolling) and the passing down snaps when Kareem or another defensive end kicks in size. Get freshman MTA or Ademilola production from Lacey or one of the other newcomers and you should be okay here, but it’s a little thinner in the middle than you would like.

Linebacker: Welp. With Drue Tranquill and Te’von Coney departing, this is pretty much wide open. Let’s assume Asmar Bilal is starting either at rover or one of the linebacker spots, which gives you some interesting options with either older guys (Jordan Genmark-Heath, Drew White, Jonathan Jones) or some blue-chip sophomores (Shayne Simon and Jack Lamb were both Top 100 players, Bo Bauer was a four-star prospect who got snaps as a freshman). Could you see redshirt freshman Derrik Allen (1o6th in the composite) slide to rover from safety? Maybe! There’s also redshirt freshman Ovie Oghoufo, who won defensive scout team player of the year. Is that worth something? Also maybe, with the rosiest interpretation of that honor being that Alohi Gilman took it last year.

I would remind you that before Coney and Tranquill were Coney and Tranquill they were a guy who didn’t start out of camp his junior year and a guy who got bounced around positions while recovering from multiple leg injuries, both ranked near the bottom of the 200s in the 247 composite, so their amazing production came from somewhat humble roots. There’s material here so I would say your level of worry should be the inverse of how you answer the question “How much do you trust Clark Lea?”

Corner: Love is gone, which is the worst, but Troy Pride, Jr. was very good as a junior and we can have high hopes for him as a senior. Could Shaun Crawford get healthy? Maybe. Donte Vaughn’s performance against Clemson doesn’t look quite so bad after seeing what they did to Alabama and with the news that he was playing with a shoulder that just underwent surgery, so he’s an option, along with Tariq Bracy, who had some flashes but needs another offseason of work as he seems set to back-up Pride. You also have second-year four-star Noah Boykin, a couple of four-star incoming freshmen and the potential for Houston Griffith to shift back here from safety. Need at least one young guy to really step up to fill in for the whiff of a junior class, but that’s not insane as we’ve seen young guys play lights out at this position.

Safety: Pretty cool. Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman were great and they’re back and they are backed up Griffith (if he doesn’t move to corner), Allen (if he doesn’t move to rover) and five-star-ish prospect Kyle Hamilton who looks like he can contribute right away. (They also add four-star freshman Litchfield Ajavon, another all-name captain and a guy who looks like he’s a visiting professor.) Could we see something from depth guys like Paul Moala or Devin Studstill? Again, maybe.

Special teams: Losing both Justin Yoon and Tyler Newsome, which is not ideal. Jonathan Doerer and some incoming freshmen will have to attempt to replace the absolute legends.

(While we’re on special teams, I know people love to complain about Brian Polian but he has never ever done anything as dumb as Alabama’s fake field goal where they tried to use their kicker as a blocking fullback against what was essentially Clemson’s base defense. Throw in the Tide’s red zone woes and Monday night was most of Notre Dame fandom’s serial complaints manifested in Alabama.)

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All-BK-at ND Team adjustments! Remember: Everybody being discussed in this section is awesome and just because someone falls short of the team or loses their spot on the team to someone in no way means they suck in any way.

(If you missed previous editions, here’s the original offense, here’s the original defense and here’s the post where we made adjustments following the 2017 season.) (Nobody was added after the 2016 season.)

Nobody on offense is making the cut, but Dexter Williams and Miles Boykin had really nice seasons that would put them in position for second-team selection. Had Alex Bars not been injured and played at the level he did through the first four games on the season he still would have been unable to make the first team because his competition was so good they were both named to the NFL’s All-Pro team. (It’s been really fun to see a wider audience get to share the joy of Quenton Nelson highlights as he runs roughshod over the NFL. #QForHeisman forever.) Bars would also be on the second team, along with Sam Mustipher, who doesn’t supplant Nick Martin.

Who does make the team? Well, Harrison Smith has a new companion at safety as Alohi Gilman takes the place of Robert Blanton. Gilman had highlight plays all year long, starting with his bodying of Michigan’s giant tight end in the opener to his key turnovers in the final two games of the regular season, the picks in the Bronx and the forced fumble in Los Angeles. He set a New Year’s Six and playoff record with 18 tackles in the Cotton Bowl, giving him 95 tackles (3 for loss) on the season to go with three forced fumbles, five pass break-ups and generally great work in coverage. We'll also give him bonus points for helping to bring Jalen Elliott along, creating a tandem that should help anchor things in the coming season. Please allow yourself to scream into a pillow one more time imagining how the 2017 season might have been altered if the NCAA hadn’t screwed Gilman over on his waiver and then we’re moving forward.

Julian Love was already on the team and he’s, well, more on the team. Love’s position is as safe as anyone’s*, as he followed up his absurd 2017 with 66 tackles (including 12 against the Trojans), 16 pass breakups, a pick, three fumble recoveries (including the scoop and score in Blacksburg) and the title of the only man on the planet capable of containing Trevor Lawrence and friends. I miss him so, so much already.

* Guys who I can’t imagine ever being replaced between now and whenever Kelly’s tenure ends: Nelson, Zack Martin, Manti, Jaylon, Love, Harrison Smith, Stephon Tuitt. For a non-center offensive lineman to make the roster, you have to be better than Nelson, Martin, Ronnie Stanley and Mike McGlinchey. Good luck!

Let’s do a quick blind resume test:

PLAYER A: 123 tackles (9.5 for loss) four sacks, four pass break ups, 5th ranked S&P+ defense

PLAYER B: 113 tackles (5.5 for loss), 1.5 sacks, four pass break ups, 4th ranked S&P+ defense

Hold on, let me break this up with an image in the system chosen completely at random so as not to spoil for those who are peeking ahead:

Okay. Player A is Te’von Coney in 2018 and Player B is Manti Te’o in 2012. I’m not saying Coney had a better season than Manti — I didn’t include Te’o’s seven (!) interceptions or the list of awards he accumulated (Maxwell, Bednarik, Nagurski, Butkus, Lombardi, Walter Camp) because that would have been a tell — but I am saying that Coney had an incredible season.

The debate about whether to add Coney or Drue Tranquill to the team is a tough one. Tranquill was the captain, had more “Oh man, that tackle in space saved 20 yards, how did he know to be there?” plays and fought back from what looked like a season-ending injury but on sheer production — 86 tackles (9 for loss) with 3.5 sacks, four pass break-ups — he’s dwarfed by Coney, who also had a pick and the fumble recovery to seal the Michigan game. Now you could make the reasonable case that Tranquill’s versatility in coverage makes him more valuable, but on a linebacking unit with Manti and Jaylon, you’ve got about as much coverage ability as you could want, allowing the deployment of Coney in seek-and-destroy mode.

After doing multiple Twitter polls and consulting with folks who follow the team very closely, I’m going with Coney but I’m reserving the right to change my mind over the rest of the offseason. If you have a compelling case for either senior, please make it in a reply to this message or on Twitter dot com.

Welcome 2018 Julian Okwara to the first team, bumping 2012 Kapron Lewis-Moore. They were asked to do very different things – KLM anchoring a 3-4, Okwara a rush end in a 4-3 — but I’m going to go with Okwara’s sturdy eight sacks (plus another 4.5 tackles for loss) and absolutely insane 21 quarterback hurries. (The next highest on the team was Khalid Kareem with eight, for comparison.) Okwara also had the pick against Michigan, a forced fumble, a pass break up and 38 total tackles. For comparison’s sake, KLM had 40 tackles, six sacks (with another 2.5 tackles for loss), two passes broken up, nine quarterback hurrie and a pair of forced fumbles. KLM and his amazing beard will anchor our second-team unit but Okwara screaming around the edge was one of my favorite things to watch this season and I want to properly reward it in this space.

Other guys considered: Jerry Tillery is close but falls just shy of Louis Nix and Sheldon Day. Troy Pride, Jr. is really close to passing KeiVarae Russell and if he can fill Love’s shoes next season he will earn the other starting spot. Ian Book made a run at 2015 DeShone Kizer but only starting nine of the 13 games (versus 11 for Kizer plus his heroics closing out things in Charlottesville). (Although we should remember one of these guys got to throw to Will Fuller and one of them did not but also one of these guys didn’t have to go against the second-toughest defense his team faced that season while the other almost led a comeback in a hurricane in Death Valley and did lead a comeback against Pac-12 champion Stanford on the road before they just arbitrarily ended the game and said there was no result.) Numbers for comparison:

Kizer 62.9% completion rate, 2880 yards, 21 touchdowns, 10 picks, 150.06 QB rating plus 520 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.

Book: 68.2% completion rate, 19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions and 153.96 rating to go with 280 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns.

If Book has his 2018 season plus expected improvements from another offseason and for 13 games then he’ll be the starter this time next year.

Your updated All-BK-at-ND Team:

QB DeShone Kizer
RB Theo Riddick
RB Josh Adams
WR Will Fuller
WR Michael Floyd
TE Tyler Eifert
OT Ronnie Stanley
OT Mike McGlinchey
OG Zack Martin
OG Quenton Nelson
C Nick Martin

DE Stephon Tuitt
DT Louis Nix III
DT Sheldon Day
DE Julian Okwara
LB Manti Te’o
LB Jaylon Smith
LB Te’von Coney
CB Julian Love
S Harrison Smith
S Alohi Gilman
CB KeiVarae Russell

(If you want a nickel, then you bump out Coney and put Blanton in as the fifth defensive back. If you want to go to a 3-4, I think your starting front would be Day/Nix/Tuitt with Jaylon/Manti/Coney/Tranquill as the linebackers behind them.)

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One nice thing about the upcoming schedule is Notre Dame will have the opportunity to make a September impression with two “All eyes on us” games. They open on Labor Day night against Louisville, a chance to start the Scott Satterfield Era off with a bludgeoning in the only game of the evening. Then in Week Four they travel to Athens in what could easily be the GameDay game. I’ve seen the Irish placed anywhere between 5th and 14th in the way-too-early preseason polls and, sure, that’s fine. By the time the dust settles in September (they follow the Georgia game by hosting a capable Virginia squad) we’ll know where the Irish stand.

(For more on Notre Dame's 2019 schedule, I really enjoyed this too-early preview at 18 Stripes. My too-early prediction is the Irish suffer their first dumb home loss since 2016 against one of the Virginia schools.)

And a note I made on Twitter that I will also share here: November 2020 will find the Irish facing the junior tandems of both Trevor Lawrence/Justyn Ross (at home, Saturday after the election) and J.T. Daniels/Amon-Ra St. Brown (finale in L.A., per usual). Long long way to go and plenty of things happen but at least on paper we will certainly need to hope Notre Dame’s good secondary recruiting the last couple years pays off.

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I think that’s it? Thank you for reading. (Special thanks to everyone who commented on the Cotton Bowl review. That was not a lot of fun to write — turns out 13 months without a loss and your skills recapping them atrophy —and it was great to hear from folks regarding it. For those of you who couldn't stomach reading it, I very much get that as well.) If you have any ideas for offseason projects, hit me up. The current state of the men’s basketball team doesn’t give me a lot of inspiration to write about that but anything is possible and we’ll certainly be keeping an eye on the women as they eye a repeat in April. (Great win over Louisville Thursday night for Muffet, Arike and the gang.)

Thank you as always for reading, this was a really, really fun season that I reflect upon more fondly as every additional day passes between the present and Jerry World. Please be kind to yourself and each other and Go Irish.

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